Wimbledon Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Tuesday 7/11/23

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, we're already into the second week of Wimbledon. What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The action continues on Tuesday morning. Which matchups offer the most value on Day 9?

Jessica Pegula vs. Marketa Vondrousova

Jessica Pegula Moneyline (-152)

Despite being a quarterfinalist at the other three Grand Slams in her career, this is the first time Jessica Pegula has advanced this far at Wimbledon -- and the first time she's even made it past the third round at the All England Club.

Pegula sure looks like she belongs in the final eight, though. After dropping a set in her first-round match, she's steamrolled the competition with straight-set wins over the next three rounds, and none of her last three matches went over an hour and 15 minutes.

And contrary to her shaky history at this tournament, the American has a 60% career win percentage in WTA-level grass matches, per Tennis Abstract, which is equal to her performance on clay and slightly below her hard courts win rate (64%).

Furthermore, Pegula is in the midst of a strong overall campaign in 2023, now owning a 35-11 record this season as the World No. 4.

Her opponent, Marketa Vondrousova, has also impressed in this tournament, dropping just one set herself, and she's had a tougher road to get here, working her way through seeded opponents in each of the last three rounds.

But her history at Wimbledon is even weaker than Pegula's, as prior to 2023, she was just 1-4 at this event. Grass is easily the weakest surface in her career, too, with just a 43% win percentage in Tour-level matches.

In going by Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Pegula wins this match on grass 66.1% of the time. While it would be nice to get more bang for our buck on the moneyline, -152 implies 60.3% win odds, so there's still value at this number. At a little more risk, backing the American to cover the 2.5-game spread (-106) is another possibility at close to even odds.

Jannik Sinner vs. Roman Safiullin

Jannik Sinner 3-0 Sets (+110)

Roman Safiullin has been one of the big surprises at this year's tournament, advancing to his first-ever Grand Slam quarterfinal despite never even playing a Wimbledon main draw match before this year. It's not like he's had the easiest draw, either, surviving a four-hour, five-set marathon against 23rd-ranked Roberto Bautista Agut in the first round and most recently defeating 29th-ranked Denis Shapovalov in the fourth round.

However, his magical run may end in emphatic fashion against Jannik Sinner.

While it's no secret that grass isn't Sinner's strongest surface -- he was just 7-7 in career ATP-level grass matches before Wimbledon -- he was a quarterfinalist at this event in 2022 and has been lights out in this year's edition. Not only has Sinner dropped just one set in this tournament run, but he's won over 80% of his first-serve points and has faced five or fewer break chance points in all four matches.

Still just 21 years old, he's a player who likely hasn't reached his full potential yet despite achieving a career-best ranking (8th) this season. He's 36-10 overall in 2023, good for a whopping 78% win percentage.

On the other hand, as alluded to earlier, Safiullin doesn't have nearly the same credentials. He's just barely inside the top 100, and even with his four wins at this tournament, that brings him to a .500 record for the year (10-10). Additionally, his most recent win over Shapovalov, while impressive on paper, comes with an asterisk, as Shapovalov was noticeably hobbled by a lingering knee injury and admitted as much after the match.

Safiullin is just 1-4 in his career versus top-10 opponents, and in the lone head-to-head between him and Sinner, the latter won in straight sets last year on hard courts.

Per Tennis Abstract, Sinner has an 82.8% chance of victory on Tuesday. While Safiullin could always surprise and snag a set, getting Sinner at plus money to win in three looks like the best play.