Wimbledon Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/12/23

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, Wimbledon is already into its second week. What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The action continues on Wednesday morning. Which matchups offer the most value on Day 10?

Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Madison Keys Moneyline (+172)

I see value in both underdogs of the remaining quarterfinal matchups on the women's side. Ons Jabeur just demolished two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova in barely over an hour in her last match and seems to be peaking just in time to get revenge in a rematch of last year's final against Elena Rybakina. While Rybakina has very much looked the part of the defending champion, Jabeur is worth a look to win at +146.

But Madison Keys is also having a great tournament, and she might not be getting enough credit at this price versus Aryna Sabalenka.

Keys is undefeated on grass this season (9-0), winning a title at Eastbourne prior to Wimbledon. She earned straight-set wins over top-10 opponents in Coco Gauff and Daria Kasatkina in her run at Eastbourne, and she most recently overcame adversity in a comeback win over 16-year-old and potential rising star Mirra Andreeva in the last round. While this is Keys' first quarterfinals appearance at Wimbledon since 2015, she has a 77% career win percentage in WTA-level grass matches, per Tennis Abstract, so she's no stranger to success on this surface.

There's no doubt she'll have her hands full against Sabalenka, a player who's been to the semifinals or better in three straight majors entering this tournament. While she played only two grass matches in the lead-up to Wimbledon, she has since dropped just one set.

But Sabalenka's 63% win rate on grass is her worst of the three surfaces, potentially opening the door for Keys to surprise on Wednesday. Although the two players have split their head-to-head at one apiece, Keys was the victor in their one grass match at Berlin in 2021.

Going by Tennis Abstract's Elo Ratings, Keys has a 45.2% win probability against Sabalenka on grass, which is far better than her 36.8% implied odds at +172.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Christopher Eubanks

Christopher Eubanks Moneyline (+385)

I've been riding Christopher Eubanks' fairytale run into the quarterfinals, which includes upsets over World No. 13 Cameron Norrie and World No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas. Eubanks is someone who once had doubts about his professional tennis career and had already been working as a tennis television commentator on the side, showing just how far he's come to reach this point. You can't ask for a much better story.

But this will be his toughest test yet against Daniil Medvedev.

Medvedev is a Grand Slam champion (2021 US Open) and former World No. 1, and he's been incredible in 2023, going 45-8 with five titles. The Russian also hasn't been tested much in this tourney thus far, either, dropping just one set all tournament while getting an easier road into the quarters after his fourth-round opponent was forced to retire mid-match due to injury.

So, why could Eubanks possibly have a shot at yet another odds-defying win?

For one thing, the vast majority of Medvedev's success has come on hard courts, the surface 18 of his 20 titles have come on. This isn't to say the Russian is some slouch on grass, as he owns a career 65% win percentage in grass matches, but that's a full 10 percentage points lower than his win rate on hard courts (75%).

Medvedev entered Wimbledon with just a 2-2 record in his lead-up grass matches, and despite making deep runs at other Grand Slams, he's a first-time quarterfinalist at this event.

As for Eubanks, his potential equalizer is his serve. Despite his modest ranking, he's the best server left in the draw, owning the fifth-best ace rate (13.8%) among players in the top 50, per Tennis Abstract. He's logged double-digit aces in all four of his Wimbledon matches, exceeding 20 in three of them. By comparison, Medvedev hasn't reached double-digit aces in any of the first four rounds.

Eubanks also enters these quarterfinals on a nine-match win streak in grass matches.

The British fans have taken a liking to this underdog story, too, as the crowd was firmly behind the American in his match against Tsitispas. He clearly thrived off the energy, frequently encouraging the crowd to cheer after big points, and that could help him keep his level up if the same holds true versus Medvedev.

All of that being said, I'm less confident in Eubanks defeating Medvedev than I was with him besting Norrie or Tsitsipas. Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings agree, giving Eubanks a one-in-five chance of victory. But that's pretty much what's being implied at +385 odds, making this a fair line to take a chance on Eubanks coming through again.