DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 6/20/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Charlie Morton ($12,200 on DraftKings): Charlie Morton stands out as the best pitcher on the slate and leads all pitchers with a 30.6 percent strikeout rate. Although it's a smaller, seven-game slate, he is also among the top three with a 1.14 WHIP and 3.17 xFIP. He's taking on a Tampa Bay Rays team that is just outside the top 10 for strikeout rate at 23.1 percent, putting them at the 11th-worst overall. The Rays' .310 team weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 98 wRC+ are in the middle-of-the-pack as well, making this a relatively neutral matchup for Morton, but with elite upside.
Gio Gonzalez ($10,200): The Baltimore Orioles have been pretty good at limiting strikeouts against left-handed pitchers, striking out 22.1 percent of the time, sitting 15th in the Majors in that category. However, their team wOBA and wRC+ are both in the bottom five. They'll be taking on Gonzalez tonight, who has a poor 22.5 percent strikeout rate, nonetheless he's a -200 favorite -- the second-highest after Morton. He frequently throws 100 pitches, so the Washington Nationals are willing to let him continuously pitch deep in games, which means more opportunities for strikeouts and fantasy production.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Jake Junis ($8,200): Outside of the top two or three pitchers tonight, it gets real ugly real fast. Jake Junis and the Kansas City Royals are -116 favorites, which is decent, and although he doesn't have much of a strikeout rate at just 23 percent, he's taking on a very strikeout-heavy team. The Texas Rangers own MLB's fifth-worst strikeout rate (25.0 percent) and a 91 wRC+ places them 23rd among all offenses.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Trevor Story ($5,500): Happy Coors Field Day, again! The Colorado Rockies are hosting the New York Mets, who will have Seth Lugo on the mound tonight. Lugo has only started three games this season, so it is tough to really gauge his stellar numbers as they mostly came as a reliever. However, going into Coors Field will always be a challenge. Although Story does most of his damage against left-handed pitching, he maintains a .223 ISO with 9 of his 16 homers coming against righties (7 at Coors).
Brandon Nimmo ($5,000): On the other side of tonight's Coors matchup, we have Mets right-fielder and recent lead-off hitter Brandon Nimmo. He has been an absolute monster this year and is among the best in numerous offensive categories, although he is just shy of qualifying. He has been especially successful against right-handed pitching, which he has smashed for a .454 wOBA and a .346 ISO. Opposing pitcher Chad Bettis has struggled this year with a 4.33 xFIP and his 17.7 percent home run to fly-ball rate is going to get him in trouble in this hitting environment.
Juan Soto ($4,600): Juan Soto has come onto the MLB scene in a big way. In his first 86 career at-bats, he has a .326 batting average and 1.013 OPS with 6 home runs. Against right-handed pitching, he has hit to a solid .357 wOBA and a .153 ISO. While the power isn't great against righties, he's going to take on Andrew Cashner, a pitcher that has been horrendous this season. Cashner has a 1.69 WHIP, 4.73 xFIP, 37.2 percent fly-ball rate and 15.5 percent home run to fly-ball rate. On top of that, his 19.0 percent strikeout rate isn't going to scare anybody off so Soto could stay hot.
Value Hitters
Whit Merrifield ($3,900): Austin Bibens-Dirkx has a decent 3.54 xFIP, but basically every other underlying number is terrible. He cannot strike anybody out (20.8 percent strikeout rate), and he has an abysmal 1.64 WHIP. Additionally, his 41.0 percent hard-hit rate, 34.2 percent line-drive rate, 91.3 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 197 foot average batted-ball distance are all the worst on the slate. Merrifield hasn't been great against righties this season, with a .295 wOBA and .066 ISO, but the price and the matchup should allow him to improve those numbers
Rafael Devers ($3,900): The Boston Red Sox are taking on Lance Lynn and the Minnesota Twins tonight, and that is a pretty solid matchup for Boston. Lynn has struggled this season, putting up a 1.60 WHIP, 4.23 xFIP and a disastrous 40.2 percent hard-hit rate, which is the second-worst on the slate. Rafael Devers has started to really heat up as of late. Over his last 10 games, he has a .317 average, .919 OPS, including 3 home runs and an average output of 10.9 DraftKings points during that stretch.
Wilson Ramos ($3,300): This is a price thing more than anything else as Wilson Ramos is taking on Charlie Morton in a difficult matchup. Morton has been an absolute beast for reasons stated above. However, when he gives up fly-balls he does struggle to keep them in the park, with a slate-worst 19.3 percent home run to fly-ball rate. Ramos has had some success against righties this season, sporting a .339 wOBA and a .148 ISO, but at $3,300 he is a great, cheap catcher and absolutely underpriced because of the scary matchup.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
