DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 6/26/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Luis Severino ($13,100 on DraftKings): Luis Severino has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and that has landed him as the highest-priced pitcher on the slate. It's justified when you consider he has an elite 30.2 percent strikeout rate along with an 0.96 WHIP and 2.94 xFIP. He's also got a cupcake matchup in terms of opposing team strikeouts as the Philadelphia Phillies strike out at an MLB-high 25.6 percent clip.
James Paxton ($12,500): Another high-strikeout pitcher in a very good matchup is James Paxton of the Seattle Mariners. He's going to take on a Baltimore Orioles team that not only struggles to generate offense -- as indicated by their MLB-low 82 wRC+ -- but they strike out at a 23.9 percent mark, seventh-most in the Majors. This bodes well for Paxton, who has an elite strikeout rate of 31.5 percent as well as a stellar 1.12 WHIP and 3.14 xFIP.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($7,900): Freddy Peralta has just 15.2 innings to his name in the Majors across three starts, with two of them being elite and one being forgettable. Well, in this small sample size, he has an insanely good 41.0 percent strikeout rate, 0.89 WHIP and 2.70 xFIP, and he's allowed just a 28.6 percent hard-hit rate. Peralta is taking on the Kansas City Royals, who do strike out an MLB-low 19.7 percent rate but also struggle to score runs. Their team weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .293 is third-from-the-bottom, and their 82 wRC+ is tied with the Orioles for the worst in the Majors.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Nolan Arenado ($5,800): It is rare when there is interest in the Colorado Rockies on the road, but tonight is an exception. They are taking on San Francisco Giants left-handed pitcher Derek Holland, who has been pretty bad this season. He's giving up a 38.2 percent hard-hit rate and 42.3 percent fly-ball rate with an 88.2 mile-per-hour average exit velocity. That's not a good trio of stats to bring to the table against a hitter with as much power as Nolan Arenado boasts. Arenado has crushed left-handed pitching in 2018 with an absurd .580 wOBA and .467 isolated power (ISO) in a decent sample size of 108 plate appearances.
Eric Thames ($5,000): Eric Thames has been absolutely mashing right-handed pitching this season. He has put up an elite .384 wOBA and .352 ISO in the split while actually getting a bit unlucky with a mere .231 BABIP. He offers huge upside in a matchup against Jake Junis. Junis has an 89.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and a slate-worst 197-foot average batted-ball distance. Additionally, he has allowed a 39.6 percent hard-hit rate and 44.3 percent fly-ball rate.
Nick Markakis ($4,600): I wanted to avoid writing up Freddie Freeman against another right-handed pitcher, so I went for the next-best bat on the Atlanta Braves in Nick Markakis. Markakis has been very successful against righties this season with a .367 wOBA in the split, although his .146 ISO leaves a bit to be desired. However, his .330 batting average is outstanding, and he should have ample opportunities to add to his 49 RBIs tonight against Matt Harvey. Gone are the glory days for this former New York Mets ace as Harvey is sporting a 4.50 xFIP, giving up a 38.6 percent hard-hit rate and 22.0 percent line-drive rate.
Value Hitters
Joey Gallo ($3,900): Any time you use Joey Gallo, you know you're going for a home run or bust. He does most of his damage against right-handed pitching as indicated by his .330 wOBA and .254 ISO. Additionally, he has an insanely high 94.3 mile-per-hour average exit velocity, 228-foot average batted-ball distance and hits barrels on 11.5 percent of his at-bats, the latter being fourth-best in the Majors among qualified hitters. He's taking on Tyson Ross, who is giving up a 38.9 percent hard-hit rate and brutal 26.6 percent line-drive rate.
Wilmer Flores ($3,400): Wilmer Flores has gained a reputation that he destroys lefties over his career and while he has had good success versus southpaws in 2018, this season has been a little different. He is destroying right-handed pitching this campaign with a .370 wOBA and .228 ISO in the split, and he gets a great matchup against Chad Kuhl. There isn't much to like about Kuhl. He has a 1.44 WHIP and 4.27 xFIP, and he is giving up a 37.0 percent hard-hit rate and 26.3 percent line-drive rate. Kuhl's statcast numbers are brutal, as well, as he owns an 88.2 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 191-foot average batted-ball distance.
Justin Bour ($3,400): This is a relatively difficult matchup for Justin Bour and the Miami Marlins as they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who will have Zack Godley on the mound. However, there are certainly some flaws in Godley's game as he has a 1.49 WHIP and his 88.9 mile-per-hour average exit velocity is an area of concern. Additionally, Bour has had most of his success against right-handed pitching, sporting a very good .385 wOBA and elite .268 ISO in the split, so he could definitely get a hold of one tonight. At this very cheap price, he is worth a play in this matchup.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
