DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 7/11/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Chris Sale ($13,000 on DraftKings): When you lead the slate in just about every important category, you're going to be the top play on the day. And that is the case for Chris Sale, who leads all pitchers today with a 36.8 percent strikeout rate, 0.89 WHIP and 2.50 xFIP while he limits opponents to an elite 27.4 percent hard-hit rate. He's taking on the Texas Rangers, a team that loves to strike out as they do so at a 24.5 percent clip -- the fourth-most in the Majors.
Freddy Peralta ($10,100): In his first 33.2 Major League innings, Freddy Peralta has been very good. His 36.2 percent strikeout rate is second only to Sale on the slate, and his 0.89 WHIP is tied with Sale. Additionally, he has the third-best xFIP, at 3.19, and a very good matchup to boot. He's got the Miami Marlins who, despite their middle-of-the-pack (22.5 percent) strikeout rate, lack in the areas of production. They sit 26th with an 87 wRC+, and their .299 team weighted on-base average is tied for the fourth-worst.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Luke Weaver ($7,700): Luke Weaver has been a roller coaster this season, posting some elite games and some absolute stinkers. However, he draws a very good matchup this evening against the Chicago White Sox, a team that strikes out at the highest clip (25.6 percent) in the Majors. Additionally, their offense struggles to the tune of a 22nd ranked wRC+ (92). Weaver and the St. Louis Cardinals are -152 favorites this evening, so his cheap price gives him some upside.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Aaron Judge ($5,500): Aaron Judge is still having issues striking out, doing so at a 31.0 percent clip. However, he also completely destroys right-handed pitching, which doesn't bode well for Baltimore Orioles pitcher Dylan Bundy. Judge has an elite .408 wOBA and .285 isolated power (ISO) against righties this season, and on the other side of the matchup, Bundy has given up a 45.2 percent fly-ball rate, 89 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 194 foot average batted-ball distance. That has led to a 15.4 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate, which could amount to a big night for The Judge.
Charlie Blackmon ($5,400): Taking on a right-handed pitcher in Coors Field is about as good of a matchup as Charlie Blackmon can get. When that matchup is against the struggling Shelby Miller, it's even better. In his first 3 starts this season, Miller has a horrendous 1.79 WHIP as well as 61.4 percent hard-hit rate, 90.9 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 28.6 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate in 14 innings. It's a very small sample size, but until he proves otherwise it's all systems go for a guy like Blackmon.
Jesus Aguilar ($4,700): Jesus Aguilar has been an absolute beast this year, and it feels like he hasn't gotten that much attention. He's just crushed right-handed pitching in 2018, with a .400 wOBA and .318 ISO, and shows no signs of slowing down. His matchup against Dan Straily couldn't be much better as Straily has a 4.96 xFIP, 45.1 percent hard-hit rate and 28.6 percent line-drive rate. His Statcast numbers are horrible, too, with an 89.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 190 foot average batted-ball distance.
Value Hitters
Mitch Moreland ($4,100): Outside of Coors Field, the Boston Red Sox have the highest implied run total (5.55) of the night. They are taking on Big Sexy, the Ageless Wonder, Bartolo Colon. Somehow, Colon keeps trucking along despite some horrible numbers, as his 4.30 xFIP, 43.2 percent hard-hit rate and 19.5 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate are among the worst on the slate. Additionally, his 14.2 percent strikeout rate is far and away the worst mark. Most of the Red Sox crush right-handed pitching, and going with the cheaper Mitch Moreland may be the play as he's had plenty of success in the form of a .380 wOBA and .243 ISO against righty hurlers.
Yonder Alonso ($3,800): Yonder Alonso doesn't have that much power, but he's taking on the Cincinnati Reds' Tyler Mahle, who has given up a 41.5 percent hard-hit rate and a 24.4 percent line-drive rate. These numbers bode well for not only Alonso but all Cleveland Indians. Alonso's numbers against righties -- a .341 wOBA and .189 ISO -- have been solid. He doesn't bring much power, but he does have 13 home runs and the opportunities should be there with men on base.
Ryon Healy ($3,500): While he is not a superstar, it seems kind of odd to have Ryon Healy's price in the mid-3K range. He has provided plenty of power against right-handed pitching, resulting in a .330 wOBA and .239 ISO. Over his last 10 games, he has hit 3 home runs while driving in 9. Jaime Barria is far from a threatening opponent, as his 4.65 xFIP, 39 percent hard-hit rate and 40.9 percent fly-ball rate would show. He also has just a 18.7 percent strikeout rate, which is encouraging for Healy and his floor on Wednesday night.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
