DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 9/24/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Luis Severino ($11,100 on DraftKings): Luis Severino has been an absolute beast this season. While there was a small blip in late-July into early-August, he has since been fantastic as he has put up 22-plus DraftKings points (DKpts) in four of his last six starts. He has a 28.1 percent strikeout rate, 1.14 WHIP and 3.08 xFIP on the season with the only real issue he's having is his 25.9 percent line-drive rate, which is actually tied for the worst on the slate. The Tampa Bay Rays have a 21.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching which isn't great for Severino but is certainly not enough of a concern to ignore him.
Corey Kluber ($10,900): His strikeout rate is down this season, at just 25.9 percent, but Corey Kluber leads the slate with an 0.98 WHIP and has the third-best xFIP with a 3.13 mark. The Cleveland Indians are -260 favourites which is the largest on the slate as they take on the Chicago White Sox. Although the strikeout rate is down for Kluber, tonight is a great opportunity to still rack up strikeouts as the White Sox have a 25.4 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which is the second-highest in the Majors.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Nathan Eovaldi ($7,300): Nathan Eovaldi and the Boston Red Sox are the second-largest favorites on the slate, at -250, as they take on the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Eovaldi isn't much of a strikeout pitcher with just a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, but his 1.15 WHIP is among the best on the slate, and he has a respectable 3.96 xFIP. The Orioles, on the other hand, have a 23.4 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which is the ninth-worst in the Majors. They also struggle to score runs, as indicated by their 90 wRC+, which is the seventh-worst and a .305 weighted on-base average -- sixth-worst in the Majors.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Jose Ramirez ($5,600): Any time you can afford to fit Jose Ramirez against a right-handed pitcher into your lineup, you are going to try and do that. He has been absolutely dominant against righties this season, with an elite .414 wOBA and an equally impressive .320 isolated power (ISO). As a switch-hitter, this is easily his more favorable split. On top of that, he has an elite matchup against Chicago White Sox righty Dylan Covey. Covey has a 1.51 WHIP and 4.41 xFIP, and his 16.5 percent strikeout rate is not very intimidating.
J.D. Martinez ($5,200): Among all hitters with at least 250 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, J.D Martinez sits third with a .435 wOBA behind only -- unsurprisingly -- Mike Trout and -- surprisingly -- Ryan O'Hearn. Martinez has crushed righties this season, and a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles' Dylan Bundy is an elite one. Bundy has struggled on the surface, with a 1.40 WHIP and a 4.31 xFIP, but he has also been awful with a 35.3 percent hard-hit rate, 46.3 percent fly-ball rate and 197 foot average batted-ball distance, which has led to a 17.3 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Bryce Harper ($5,000): He's got a pretty ugly .245 AVG this season, but he has still been dominant against right-handed pitching. He has put up a .378 wOBA and .260 ISO. Tonight, he's taking on Sandy Alcantara, who has just 23 innings under his belt in 2018. However, those innings have been interesting, as he has a 1.30 WHIP and a horrific 5.61 xFIP but a 2.35 ERA. This leads me to believe that -- albeit in a small sample size -- Alcantara has been getting very lucky in terms of the number of runs he's allowed, so he could be in for regression tonight.
Value Hitters
Paul DeJong ($4,200): Chase Anderson was originally projected to start, but the Milwaukee Brewers have opted to go with a bullpen game and it will be Dan Jennings on the mound for the opening pitch. While he's expected to only last an inning or two, there is reason to believe that there can be a quick offensive explosion for the St. Louis Cardinals. Jennings has a not-so-great 1.39 WHIP and a 4.04 xFIP along with a 36.8 percent hard-hit rate. Paul DeJong doesn't have the most elite numbers against righties, with a .337 wOBA and a .209 ISO, but they are still solid enough at this price.
Rougned Odor ($4,000): He's gotten pretty cheap, but Odor has also struggled as of late, so there is definitely some hesitation here. However, he's taking on Felix Pena of the Los Angeles Angels, and although Pena has a modest 1.27 WHIP and 4.04 xFIP, his 40.1 percent hard-hit rate and 24.4 percent line-drive rate are exploitable and something that the Texas Rangers can take advantage of. Odor has pretty solid numbers against right-handed pitchers, with a .335 wOBA and a .209 ISO from the left side.
Tyler White ($3,900): I'm still unsure how Tyler White is so cheap. I guess he has struggled a bit lately, but his dominance against right-handed pitching should keep the price at least above $4,000. He has crushed them to the tune of a .392 wOBA and an elite .278 ISO. Additionally, he has a premium matchup against struggling Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada. He has a 1.41 WHIP and horrendous 5.74 xFIP with a lowly 16.9 percent strikeout rate. Although his home-run-to-fly-ball rate is low, at 10.9 percent, when you have a 55.7 percent fly-ball rate and a 215 foot average batted-ball distance -- both of which are slate-worsts -- you're playing with fire in terms of keeping the ball in the park.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
