DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 5/1/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Jacob deGrom ($10,200 on DraftKings): He started off the season with two elite starts and since then, he has had two brutal starts and a mediocre one. For the price tag you have to pay for Jacob DeGrom, you want one of those first two starts. Tonight, he's got a great matchup to bounce back against a Cincinnati Reds team that strikes out at a 24.2 percent clip, which ranks as the 10th most in the Majors. deGrom was the NL Cy Young winner in 2018 with his incredibly dominant 32.2 percent strikeout rate and unbelievable 1.70 ERA.
Hyun-jin Ryu ($9,200): Since the start of 2018, Hyun-jin Ryu has increased his strikeout rate to an elite level. His career strikeout rate is 22.2 percent and that is after a 2018 rate of 27.5 percent and an even better 30.8 percent strikeout rate in 2019. Prior to that, his strikeout rate floated around 20 percent. His matchup against the San Francisco Giants is average from a strikeout standpoint, but the Giants cannot produce any offence. Their .264 team weighted on-base average (wOBA) is dead last against left-handed pitchers in 2019.
Value Pitcher
Max Fried ($7,800): The lower end pitching is kind of bare tonight in that there are not many that have intriguing strikeout rates or produce big numbers. Max Fried might be the closest, as his 31.0 percent strikeout rate in 2018 was elite. However, his career mark is only 23.6 percent so we'll have to temper our expectations moving forward. His matchup is a moderate one against the San Diego Padres. They have a 25.6 strikeout rate against lefties which is the 11th most in the Majors, and their .320 wOBA against southpaws sits 13th. So this is a relatively average matchup that we hope Fried can pick up a win from.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Pete Alonso ($5,300): Peter Alonso has come into the league this season and had an elite start to his career. Against right-handed pitching specifically, Alonso has brought plenty of power with his .367 wOBA and an awesome .250 isolated power (ISO). His matchup today should really accentuate his power, taking on Cincinnati Reds right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. In 2018, DeSclafani gave up a 41.9 percent hard-hit rate and 36.1 percent fly-ball rate which led to an abysmal 19.8 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Carlos Correa ($4,800): Carlos Correa has had plenty of success against left-handed hitters throughout his career, crushing southpaws to the tune of a .372 wOBA and a .196 ISO. He'll face a pretty terrible left-handed pitcher tonight in Minnesota Twins' southpaw Martin Perez. Perez in 2018 was a nightmare and although the sample size was only 88.1 innings, it is still worth noting as his career numbers aren't really that much better. Last season, Perez gave up a 41.4 percent hard-hit rate and although he did have a very good 50.8 percent groundball rate, his 5.11 SIERA indicates that he was still an outright terrible pitcher.
Andrew McCutchen ($4,500): This is a very good matchup for all of the Philadelphia Phillies tonight as they host the Detroit Tigers — a team that will be going with Daniel Norris on the mound this evening. In 2018, Norris struggled with a 40.6 percent hard-hit rate and 28.6 percent line-drive rate. Getting hit that hard and giving up that many line drives are a recipe for an absolute disaster. Throughout his career, Andrew McCutchen has crushed left-handed pitching with a .404 wOBA and a .236 ISO. Now, in 2018 those numbers were down to a .355 wOBA and .192 ISO which are in line with his 2019 numbers so far.
Value Hitters
Carlos Santana ($4,200): Carlos Santana is a switch-hitter, and last season he was most successful against left-handed pitching, putting up a .354 wOBA and a .209 ISO. Against righties, he still had a solid .326 wOBA and .177 ISO. This is good for him that once another teams bullpen comes into the game, he still has plenty of success against either. Tonight he'll start off against a lefty in Miami's Caleb Smith. In 2018, Smith struggled with a 37.1 percent hard-hit rate and 50.8 percent fly-ball rate but was lucky to have that result in just a 10.0 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,000): We are still waiting for the first Major League home run for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but his plate disciplined has continued at the Major League level. He has an elite 17.6 walk rate with a below average 23.5 percent strikeout rate. He has an absurd 60.0 percent hard-hit rate but his 60 percent groundball rate hurts. Now, remember, this is just 17 plate appearances. VERY small sample size that is somewhat meaningless, but we all know the minor league success and to show that he hasn't been overwhelmed at the plate yet is encouraging. His matchup against Los Angeles Angels' Felix Pena tonight is a great one as he gave up a 40.1 percent hard-hit rate and 33.3 percent fly-ball rate last season which led to a 13.3 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Perhaps tonight is the night Vladdy's home run count begins.
Jesus Aguilar ($3,600): After having a BABIP below .100 to start the season, Jesus Aguilar is starting to finally get some batted-ball luck go his way. He has three home runs over the last two games and has already seen his BABIP jump to .175 since having two great games in a row. He is still priced as though he is in a massive slump and we need to continue to pounce. This is a hitter who in 2018 smashed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .368 wOBA and elite .263 ISO. If he gets things going, he'll be priced in the mid-4k range in no time.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
