4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/3/19
https://www.numberfire.com/mlb/daily-fantasy/matchup-heat-mapPlayer props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Josh Donaldson To Hit a Home Run (+270)
A very hot day in Atlanta with the wind blowing out could bring us fireworks tonight, but what home run props should we look at?
The Atlanta Braves come in with an implied team total set at 5.61 tonight and you can bet your bottom dollar that we are going to see some home runs tonight with this park factor and the favorable hitting weather. If you want great odds on a home run prop, look no further than the Josh Donaldson aka the Bringer of Rain. Yes, the veteran third basemen has fantastic odds tonight and comes in boasting a .236 ISO, 45.0% hard-hit rate, and a 22.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio against right-handed pitchers this season.
The power is there, the favorable hitting environment is there, but what about the matchup? Well, the matchup couldn't be better since he is up against Nick Pivetta, who is getting absolutely annihilated by righty hitters this season. Pivetta is allowing 2.42 homers per nine this season, along with a 41.6% hard-hit rate, and a truly horrible 28.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Stats like that won't play well anywhere, especially when you are in a park like Sun Trust.
Wade Miley OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-134)
A 3.5 strikeout prop seems entirely too low, right? This has to be a lock?
Yes, a 3.5 strikeout prop is very low and should be one of the "safer" bets of the night. Wade Miley is the pitcher with this low strikeout prop and he comes in with a 20.5% strikeout rate this season, which is around the middle of the pack for pitchers on the slate and nothing to write home about. Miley isn't a big strikeout pitcher for his career but has managed to post five or more strikeouts in six of his last seven starts.
That is a strong trend and should be able to continue tonight versus the Colorado Rockies, who have a 25.9% strikeout rate versus lefty pitchers, which is the fourth worst in the league. Our projections have Miley going for 4.56 strikeouts tonight, thus hitting the over on this prop. The prop is very low, the matchup is good, and the recent string of consistency should make this obtainable for Miley.
Nolan Arenado To Hit a Home Run (+190)
On the other side of Wade Miley is Nolan Arenado, and that means a home run is in play tonight.
Regardless of the strikeout prop for Miley being a solid bet tonight, the home run prop for Arenado is always a good bet when he is at home versus a left-handed pitcher. Arenado's numbers at home versus lefty pitchers are simply insane, and yeah, it's Coors Field, we get it, they might be exaggerated, but we still want to attack this prop.
While at home versus lefty pitchers, Arenado carries a .501 wOBA, .333 ISO, a 48.7% hard-hit rate, and a 23.1% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Those are amazing numbers and since our projections have him as the twelfth most likely hitter to go deep tonight, you want to attack the splits via the home run prop.
Joc Pederson To Hit a Home Run (+180)
Joc Pederson comes in at number four on our home run projections tonight, but let's take a look at why.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are facing off against Merrill Kelly, who is struggling in his first year up in the Major League, specifically against left-handed hitters. Kelly comes in sporting a 5.06 xFIP, 42.3% hard-hit rate, and a modest 33.8% fly-ball rate against those lefties, which certainly isn't reassuring when facing off against this powerful Dodgers lineup.
Joc Pederson is truly only in play against righty pitchers, but with his odds where they are, we know he is one of the top hitters to go deep tonight. Pederson has a .326 ISO, 41.6% fly-ball rate, and a 43.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers, showing why he is so highly rated in our projections. Pederson even has better odds compared to Cody Bellinger, which should tell you enough about his power potential.
