5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/16/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Evan Longoria, 3B, San Francisco Giants ($3,000)
Quietly, Evan Longoria has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Going back to July 1st, Evan Longoria is hitting .371 with a 1.177 OPS and eight home runs in 74 plate appearances. In that span, Longoria has entirely changed his quality of contact. His 49.1% hard-contact rate and 10.5% soft-contact rate in that span are both improvements over where he was earlier in the season, as his diminished 17.6% strikeout rate.
Tonight, Longoria will face Mike Leake. Leake represents a matchup that Longoria should be able to take advantage of, and at just $3,000 dollars, Longoria represents my favorite value of the slate.
Daniel Murphy, 1B, Colorado Rockies ($3,000)
Just like everybody else, Daniel Murphy has killed the ball this season at Coors Field. His .337/.383/.491 slash line in 180 plate appearances at home this season make him a smart play whenever he’s at home, but at just $3,000 dollars tonight against a good matchup he’s a great play.
On the mound for the Marlins tonight is Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has a 6.26 ERA over his past eight starts. His command has been his biggest issue in that time, with a 23:35 walk to strikeout (BB:K) in 46 innings over those eight starts. A trip to Coors field isn’t going to help those numbers and his struggles are the reason I like a couple of Rockies as values today.
Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies ($3,200)
Raimel Tapia is one of the most Coors field reliant hitters in the Colorado Rockies lineup. This season, Tapia has a .239/.266/.380 slash line away from Coors field in 169 plate appearances with a 6:40 BB:K ratio and 14 extra-base hits, speaking to him being a potentially awful hitter. However, at the friendly confines of Coors field, Tapia is slashing .339/.381/.525 with a 12:39 BB:K ratio and 21 extra-base hits in 189 plate appearances.
Tapia has also been red-hot at the plate. In his last 24 games, Tapia is hitting .376 with a .910 OPS. He’s also struck out just 11 times in those 89 plate appearances. His home success combined with his recent hot stretch makes him a great play tonight.
Mike Montgomery, SP, Kansas City Royals ($6,600)
There’s a lot of really good starting pitchers on tonight’s slate, but if you want to go contrarian and start your lineup with a cheap starter with upside, Mike Montgomery is the right pick.
Since being traded to the Kansas City Royals and being moved back into a starter, Montgomery’s numbers aren’t great. However, two starts ago Montgomery started featuring his curveball more and has used his off-speed pitches more primarily than his four-seam fastball. The results of those two starts have been fantastic, throwing 12 innings, allowing two earned runs, and an incredible 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Most surprisingly, his swinging strike rate in those starts has been an eye-popping 18.3%, for comparison, Max Scherzer leads all of baseball in swinging-strike rate at 17.1% for the season, not that Montgomery is all of the sudden Max Scherzer, but he’s taken a leap that shows clear upside in tonight's matchup against the Mets.
Matt Beaty, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,600)
Matt Beaty has just dominated right-handed pitching since his call-up. In 151 plate appearances against righties, Beaty is slashing .310/.351/.549 with all six of his home runs on the season.
Beaty also hits the ball exceptionally well. His 42.0% hard contact rate and 20.3% line-drive rate are both well above average marks. His combination of great contact and never striking out (11.9% K rate against right-handed pitching) gives him a solid floor and a high ceiling in matchups against right-handed pitching.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
