4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/19/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trevor Bauer OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (+100)
There is no doubt that Trevor Bauer is the best pitcher in action tonight, but can we bank on his strikeout prop tonight?
Bauer comes in with a 27.6% strikeout rate this season -- which is highest on the slate -- and has proven over multiple seasons to be an elite strikeout pitcher.
Tonight, he is facing off against the San Diego Padres, who have a 26.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the third-worst in the league. This sets up to be the ideal matchup for Bauer, who comes in with nine or more strikeouts in four of his last seven starts. The odds on this prop should be noted because you are getting even money to bet on what Bauer does best in an ideal matchup.
Our projections only have Bauer going for 7.82 strikeouts tonight, which would hit the under, but given his recent form and the matchup, the over at even money is the bet tonight.
Wade Miley OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-152)
No one is going to mistake Wade Miley for a big strikeout pitcher, but tonight he has a low prop and a favorable matchup.
Miley is holding a 19.9% strikeout rate this season, which is as average as you'll find in the majors and nothing to write home about. Regardless of that low strikeout rate, Miley is up against the Detroit Tigers tonight, who come in with a 25.5% strikeout rate versus lefty pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. There is no doubt that the Tigers are one of the worst teams in the league and have very little discipline at the plate this season, which means we can attack them via a strikeout prop.
Yes, even with Miley on the mound, his 4.5 prop is low and the over on it -- while it has plenty of juice -- looks to be the right bet. Our projections have him going 5.02 strikeouts tonight thus, hitting the over against the Tigers tonight.
Alex Bregman To Hit a Home Run (+260)
The Houston Astros are going to score plenty of runs tonight, it's just a matter of how many.
Edwin Jackson is on the mound tonight for the Detroit Tigers, giving the Astros a 6.60 implied run total, which is the highest on the slate. Jackson isn't a good pitcher, so it doesn't matter what he's done over his last few starts, as they were against the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners. J
Against righty hitters this season, Jackson comes in with a 5.90 xFIP, allowing 4.74 home runs per nine innings, a 43.4% hard-hit rate, and a 37.0% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Yes, those numbers are exaggerated since he has only pitched 39 innings this season, but the last few seasons have been much of the same for him.
Alex Bregman comes in with massive numbers versus righty pitchers this season, holding a .260 ISO, 42.4% hard-hit rate, and a 45.0% fly-ball rate. That lines up nicely versus Jackson, who struggles with fly balls and should see Bregman hit one over the fence tonight. That's backed by our projections having him as the third most likely hitter to do so.
Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run (+270)
All Juan Soto does is hit home runs.
While that might not be entirely true, you can make the case that Soto is up there as one of the best home run hitters in the league this season. He comes in with seven home runs in his last eight games and has surpassed his home run total from last season in fewer games. He is going to be one of the next great power hitters, and we should be seeing much of the same tonight. Our projections have him as the ninth most likely hitter to go deep tonight, which should come as a surprise.
Soto is carrying a .292 ISO, 41.8% hard-hit rate, and a very high 28.2% home-run-to-fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Those are simply elite-level numbers, because that's what he is, an elite power-hitter.
He is up against Trevor Williams, who shouldn't be too much of an issue, as he is allowing 1.30 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters this season.