FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 4/26/23
This could be a tougher Wednesday slate, as there isn't a clear-cut top pitcher, and only one hitting matchup truly stands out for stacks.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
On tonight's slate, Logan Gilbert ($10,000) is the only pitcher with a strikeout rate exceeding 30%, and while he doesn't have a perfect matchup against the Phillies at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, he arguably has the best path to upside for tournaments.
There's no question that Gilbert has been dealing in 2023, posting a 2.93 SIERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate, and 48.2% ground-ball rate over four starts. It's worth noting that Gilbert had his start pushed back a day, but it sounds like it was just a precautionary measure, and he got up to 99 pitches in his most recent outing.
Philadelphia isn't the easiest opponent, but it's one that could also provide extra whiffs. While the Phillies' active roster was roughly an average matchup in 2022 for right-handers, they've been one of the league's best in 2023, owning the fourth-best wRC+ in the split (119). The good news? They also have the fifth-highest strikeout rate (25.0%).
The Phillies' 4.15 implied team total falls smack dab in the middle tonight, further showing the dangers of this spot. But it will be hard to match Gilbert's ceiling if he's dealing.
While Kodai Senga ($10,400) has put up a 26.6% strikeout rate, he's also logged 3-4 walks in every start this year, leading to a poor 14.9% walk rate. That obviously isn't great, but Washington's active roster has the third-lowest walk rate (7.0%) and fourth-lowest wRC+ (74) versus righties this season.
Senga has reached six innings just once in four starts, so a low-walk team is a perfect opportunity for him to pitch deep into a game, and the Nats have a slate-worst 3.40 implied team total. Unfortunately, Washington is also an offense that doesn't strike out often, which could hamper Kodai's upside, but he still comes away as one of the night's better plays.
You probably didn't enter the season expecting Bryce Elder ($10,900) to lead an eight-game slate in salary, but here we are.
That's a cap hit that will be tough to stomach for a guy with a 24.0% strikeout rate, but his matchup against Miami is a good one. The Marlins' active roster has the third-worst strikeout rate (25.5%) and seventh-worst wRC+ (85) when facing right-handers, and their implied team total is the second-lowest, as well (3.64).
Elder may not have an extraordinary strikeout rate, but he isn't doling out too many walks (7.3%), and his ground-ball rate (51.6%) helps keep him out of trouble. I still think Gilbert has a better chance at a ceiling game, but Elder's been rock-solid, achieving quality starts in three of four games.
As we've seen from our previous three entries, there really isn't a perfect play tonight, and of our viable options, Sandy Alcantara ($9,800) might be the biggest wild card of them all.
Not only has Alcantara submitted up-and-down results with an underwhelming 4.32 SIERA and 19.8% strikeout rate, but he skipped his Saturday start due to biceps tendinitis and has a difficult matchup versus the Braves. In all, it's just hard to say what we're going to see from him tonight, and for someone who typically relies on long outings to score fantasy points, a lower pitch count would really hamper his upside even if he's pitching well.
Still, for as scary as Atlanta's bats can be, they have a 25.6% strikeout rate against righties, and a healthy Alcantara is always a threat to lead the slate in scoring.
Despite terrible underlying numbers, Patrick Sandoval ($9,200) is a possible value play solely because he's facing the Athletics. The A's have played well in a small sample versus lefties, but their active roster was one of the worst in the split last year (88 wRC+), and they have the third-lowest implied team total (3.90).
Sandoval posted a 3.94 SIERA and 23.7% strikeout rate last season, which are marks close to his career average, so he should theoretically still be that same pitcher at just age 26.
It might not be necessary to go this far down the list, but Steven Matz ($6,900) looks way under-salaried for someone with a 26.5% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate as a starter going back to last season. The results haven't been there dating back to 2022, so maybe this is just who he is now, but he theoretically should be better.
The Giants love to play matchups, so they will attack Matz with a slew of righties, which could spell doom for him yet again. But San Francisco's active roster also has one of the worst strikeout rates against southpaws both this year (29.5%) and last year (25.5%), so Matz could still surprise tonight.
Hitting Breakdown
The Los Angeles Angels have easily the highest implied team total on the board (5.60), and that's due to them facing a pitcher making his MLB debut.
Luis Medina has a 5.72 xFIP and 20.0% walk rate over his three Triple-A starts this year, and he's posted double-digit walk rates his entire rise up the minor league ranks. It's hard to envision him being ready for The Show, and combined with Oakland's atrocious bullpen, this could be a long night for the A's.
Mike Trout ($4,200) and Shohei Ohtani ($3,700) should headline most stacks, and Hunter Renfroe ($3,700) is probably the next-best bet for a dinger. But beyond them, if Medina is as wild as expected, the fantasy points could come from just about anywhere in the lineup, so this could be more of a matter of mixing and matching whoever helps fill out stacks, and everyone else comes in below $3,000 apiece.
We see a large drop-off in implied team totals after the Angels, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the better ones (4.55) against Roansy Contreras.
Contreras has a 20.2% strikeout rate,10.6% walk rate, and 36.5% ground-ball rate in 2023, and we saw similar marks in those categories last season. The right-hander posted a 5.01 xFIP versus left-handed batters in 2022, and he's struggled in that split so far this year.
Freddie Freeman ($3,500) is the obvious first choice among Dodgers lefties, and while things get a bit thinner with Max Muncy on paternity leave, the other lefties come in at low salaries, like Jason Heyward ($2,600) and James Outman ($3,400). It's more of a neutral matchup for righties, but Mookie Betts ($3,600) and J.D. Martinez ($3,100) are clear guys to include in the mix, too.
The New York Mets are in play against MacKenzie Gore, who seems to be doing his best Blake Snell impression so far with a 29.1% strikeout rate and 16.3% walk rate. While that high strikeout rate means he could potentially shut the Mets down, the more likely scenario is that he gets himself into trouble with all those walks.
New York has been a high-walk, low-strikeout team versus lefties going back to last season, so this will be an especially troublesome spot for Gore. Pete Alonso ($4,200) is probably the closest thing to a must against the lefty, and then it's just a matter of prioritizing the rest of the righties for stacks.
On a tough slate for hitting, the Seattle Mariners are another team facing an iffy pitcher, and then you might even consider the Oakland Athletics or Atlanta Braves.
Seattle gets Taijuan Walker, who's struggled to a 5.00 SIERA, 19.1% strikeout rate, and 13.5% walk rate. The A's may stink, but it's not like Patrick Sandoval's been any good, either, and he could see as many as eight right-handed batters. Stacking the Braves is merely betting on a talented lineup against a Sandy Alcantara, who might not be 100%.
