3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/30/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Byron Buxton To Hit a Home Run (+340)

The Minnesota Twins have a good matchup against the Baltimore Orioles that should result in plenty of scoring.

Baltimore will have Dean Kremer on the mound, and with some nice hitting weather, we should see the ball flying tonight. Kremer comes in allowing .431 SLG, 3.92 xFIP, 1.45 HR/9, and a 39.2% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. It's not a great line to see as an Orioles fan but exactly what we want from the Twins' side of things.

We turn to Byron Buxton, who comes in with a 105 wRC+, .325 wOBA, .235 ISO, and 45.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. That's some serious power and has been on display for multiple seasons for Buxton.

As usual, I'm adding Buxton To Record an RBI (+135).

Matt Olson To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

The Atlanta Braves have an elite offense across the board, and getting exposure to it via player props is always a great idea.

Bryan Hoeing will be on the mound for the Miami Marlins, which gives the Braves a slate-high 5.66 implied run total. Hoeing is a younger pitcher for the Marlins and has a total of 47.2 innings pitched at the MLB level between this season and last.

Over this time, Hoeing has allowed a 5.58 xFIP, 13.3% walk rate, 14.7% strikeout rate, and 38.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. That's nothing to worry about and has me excited for the Braves' offensive potential tonight.

This leads us directly to Matt Olson with a prop at nearly even money, which could be my favorite on the entire slate. Olson is blasting righties this season with a 163 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .365 ISO, 50.6% fly-ball rate, and 37.8% hard-contact rate.

This matchup is all about Olson continuing to crush righties.

Michael Lorenzen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

A pitcher at Coors Field? No thanks.

We all know what can happen with a game at Coors Field; runs pile up quickly and a pitcher is pulled from the game. That's always great when we are targeting an under on a strikeout prop, but there's more to it than just that for Michael Lorenzen.

First off, Lorenzen has an 18.6% strikeout rate, which is well lower than the league average of 22.7%. He isn't a big strikeout pitcher, so taking an under seems par for the course with his skillset.

Next, we look at the matchup versus the Colorado Rockies, which may appear good at first glance, but much like the Transformers, there's more than meets the eye.

The Rockies come in with a 23.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the ninth-worst in the league. However --and it's a big however -- if we adjust for their strikeout rate while at home versus right-handed pitchers, we see it drop to 20.7%, which is the eighth-lowest in the league.

That's not really a surprise since the hitting environment at Coors Field is elite and prevents pitchers from racking up strikeouts. It's all about the under with Lorenzen tonight.