MLB Betting Guide for Friday 7/14/23: Will the Surging Guardians Stay Hot Exiting the Break?

If you want a large inventory of options to bet, baseball has got you covered.

From moneylines to run totals to strikeout props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

With that said, which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

Dodgers ML (-118)

The betting activity here is peculiar, but I debated a plunge on Dodgers +1.5 (+136) before settling on this in large part to two key advantages. They crush righties and have a significantly better bullpen.

Justin Verlander has struggled in his age-40 season, amassing a 3.60 expected ERA (xERA) that doesn't tell the full story of a concerning 44.1% hard-hit rate allowed. L.A. has torched right-handers all year, and they've held a .796 OPS against them since June 15th, aided by the return of Max Muncy a couple of weeks ago.

I'm not sure the Mets' bullpen would be much relief behind him; their 4.60 xFIP this season is dreadful, and Los Angeles (4.06) has them fully beat in that department.

New York's offense could struggle to get to Julio Urias and keep pace in this one. Their .670 OPS against southpaws since June 15th is the 10th-worst in baseball, and Urias' 4.06 xERA might be a disappointment relative to expectations, but it's serviceable when also accompanied by a solid 32.8% hard-hit rate allowed.

Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs

Under 9.5 (-118)

Fading a wind direction at Wrigley Field isn't smart in the long run, but this particular number is way too high for the teams playing there tonight.

You'd worry most about the Boston Red Sox having an outburst, but Boston has cooled to just a 108 wRC+ against righties since June 15th. That's a bit undersold when they have a .772 OPS -- in large part thanks to their ballpark. Kyle Hendricks can give them fits as he has others this season.

Hendricks' hard-hit rate allowed, average exit velocity, and walk rate are all 85th percentile or better across MLB this season. He's really an outstanding pitcher despite the low amount of punchouts (14.9%).

On the other side, Boston's Brayan Bello is in the midst of a breakout season behind his 4.00 xERA and stellar 55.8% groundball rate. He's aided additionally by this matchup with the Cubs, who sport a pitiful .705 OPS since June 15th in this split, and their 45.4% groundball rate in this time (eighth-highest in baseball) is an organic fit for Bello's game.

There's also weather in the area of Chicago tonight, so a shortened game would be helpful to cash this total, and I'm not sure how much that's factored into this line.

Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers

Guardians ML (+118)

As of late, these two teams are far closer to each other than they started the season.

Texas still has a solid offense, amassing a 118 wRC+ against righties since June 15th. However, the Guardians have emerged in the dog days with a 110 wRC+ against orthodox hurlers themselves, and they're even a bit more consistent night to night doing it was a .114 isolated power (ISO) versus Texas' .190.

With that in mind, Cleveland also has the better pitcher tonight. Aaron Civale has a 2.56 ERA that's decently supported by a 3.70 xERA. His 20.7% strikeout rate won't blow anyone away, but it's higher than Texas righty Jon Gray's (20.1%) entering their matchup tonight.

Gray's poor peripherals have merited poor results recently. He's ballooned to a 3.29 ERA, but his 4.27 xERA still implies worse days are ahead.

Cleveland's bullpen (4.21 xFIP) has also been a step ahead of Texas' (4.33) all season, so I like this contrarian fade of the public action on FanDuel Sportsbook to this point.