MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 7/18/23: Who Truly Has the Pitching Edge in Arlington?

Baseball has got you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to strikeout props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

With that said, which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Chicago White Sox at New York Mets

White Sox ML (+104)

I've gotten plenty of value with the underperforming White Sox all year when Lucas Giolito starts. Tuesday is no different.

Giolito is pretty clearly Chicago's top arm, amassing a 3.45 ERA that's decently supported by a 4.02 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Giolito also carries in his usual sporty strikeout rate (25.3%), and he's been able to avoid critical failures with an elevated-but-not-horrible 41.8% hard-hit rate allowed.

Even if he's not perfect, he's a lot better than his counterpart today. Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 5.23 SIERA, a low 16.7% strikeout rate, and has ceded 1.77 HR/9 in what's looking like a lost season for the Mets.

Since June 1st, New York does have a decent edge in OPS against righties (.724) over Chicago (.686), but their pitching deficit seems to be a massive amount to overcome. In addition to the gap in starter quality, New York's bullpen has waffled to a 4.81 xFIP in this same time. Chicago's bullpen (3.89 xFIP since the start of June) is currently one of the best in the sport.

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers

Rays ML (+110)

As odd as it may seem, the unheralded starter here might be the better one to back.

Most would point to 2023 All-Star Nathan Eovaldi as the superior arm in Texas tonight. He'll make his first pass in baseball's second half against a Tampa Bay squad that's cooled off a little but is still dangerous. They led the league in wRC+ against righties in April and May, but their 107 wRC+ in this split is still tied for ninth-best in MLB since the start of June.

Per a 3.83 SIERA, Eovaldi is due for some regression from a 2.83 ERA moving forward. He's in the opposite situation of Taj Bradley has been equal parts sensational and unlucky for the Rays.

Bradley's 5.43 ERA is a farce when checking out a 3.44 SIERA, and he's got a massive 29.7% strikeout rate in a sample that's ballooned to 13 starts. The issue for him, of course, will be the Rangers' sticks, sporting a 125 wRC+ in this split since the start of June.

These are two dangerous offenses, but after dropping Monday's series opener, it's a bit odd this line is so close when comparing ERAs. Diving into the peripherals, Tampa's rookie can absolutely keep pace tonight.

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

Angels ML (-108)

I trust Patrick Sandoval -- against the offense without Shohei Ohtani -- far more than I trust Domingo German facing Ohtani's club tonight.

Though the lefty is uninspiring, Sandoval's 4.45 expected ERA (xERA) is still incredibly respectable. His low rate of punchouts (18.2%) comes with a trade of elite flyball management (28.2%) and a low 34.3% hard-hit rate allowed.

Against lefties, the Yankees have leaned on a massive .201 isolated power (ISO) in lieu of getting on base regularly (.311 OBP) since the start of June, so Sandoval is a really poor matchup for a team that relies on gopher balls.

Los Angeles will draw Domingo German on the other side, and outside of one night of perfection, German's 2023 campaign hasn't been great. The 4.21 xERA is no problem, but an elevated 39.6% flyball rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate allowed definitely are.

With the Halos registering a 124 wRC+ in this split since the start of June, there could be plenty of runs in this one. I'll trust Sandoval's ability to pitch to contact to manage it with fewer damaging moments.