NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Food City Dirt Race
If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.
NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!
numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.
With all of this in mind, let's preview the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on FanDuel.
Weekend Primer
| Event | Time |
| First Practice | Friday, April 7th 5:35 p.m. EST |
| Final Practice | Friday, April 7th 8:30 p.m. EST |
| Qualifying Races | Saturday, April 8th 6:00 p.m. EST |
Though some local dirt races have time trials to set their qualifying races, NASCAR will just use practice times.
That means, as we had at the L.A. Clash in February, we'll have a really solid set of data for this unique challenge. This is the Cup Series' only race on dirt every year, and things should change a bit again with the new short-track aero package in 2023.
A dirt background isn't essential to winning here; in fact, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch have won the first two dirt races without one. It's more important to show speed in practice, and dirt acts as a low-grip surface like other worn asphalt ones across the circuit.
Thankfully, the qualifying races are on Saturday, so we'll have plenty of time to set lineups on Easter Sunday.
General Lineup Strategy
There are only 250 laps led in this race, but without live pit stops, the field doesn't shuffle much. Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, and Daniel Suarez combined to lead 249 laps last year -- all except the last one, which went to the winner Busch after Reddick and Briscoe crashed.
Therefore, we do want to target dominant cars here, and last year, the qualifying races brought the cream to the top. Only two of the top-10 finishes started outside the top-11 spots. In 2021, four drivers started outside the top 20 and finished inside the top 10.
I'll be loyal to speed above all, but if a driver that surely profiles to contend or has an excellent starting record starts deeper in the field, I'll be willing to listen.
Personally, the qualifying races are important to watch with your eyes. The ease with which Martin Truex Jr. passed cars in his heat race during this year's L.A. Clash led me to him in the main event, which he dominated. That particular race dynamic can only be captured so much in finishing order and times.
Driver Rankings
Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.
MLT Rank is the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar race tracks to this weekend as a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:
2023 Richmond (Spring) - 50%
2022 Bristol Dirt (Spring) - 30%
2022 Darlington (Fall) - 20%
For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.
For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.
| Swaim's Rank |
Driver | Sannes' Sims |
MLT Rank |
Dominator Viability |
Flex Play Viability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 9.52% | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 8.28% | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 7.64% | 5 | 9 | 10 |
| 4 | William Byron | 5.82% | 4 | 9 | 10 |
| 5 | Tyler Reddick | 4.98% | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| 6 | Ross Chastain | 10.48% | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 8.26% | 3 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 7.90% | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 9 | Chase Briscoe | 1.98% | 15 | 8 | 10 |
| 10 | Alex Bowman | 2.82% | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 8.20% | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Kevin Harvick | 6.22% | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Daniel Suarez | 1.76% | 11 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Ryan Blaney | 2.82% | 14 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 1.08% | 23 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Austin Dillon | 0.26% | 20 | 3 | 7 |
| 18 | Chris Buescher | 2.96% | 17 | 2 | 6 |
| 19 | Ty Gibbs | 2.20% | 21 | 1 | 5 |
| 20 | Michael McDowell | 0.48% | 16 | 0 | 5 |
| 21 | Josh Berry | 1.30% | 28 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 | Ryan Preece | 0.38% | 25 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | Brad Keselowski | 3.28% | 13 | 0 | 3 |
| 23 | Justin Haley | 0.22% | 22 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | Bubba Wallace | 0.54% | 18 | 0 | 2 |
| 25 | Erik Jones | 0.18% | 25 | 0 | 2 |
| 26 | Noah Gragson | 0.04% | 31 | 0 | 2 |
| 27 | Austin Cindric | 0.14% | 24 | 0 | 1 |
| 28 | Todd Gilliland | 0.02% | 27 | 0 | 1 |
| 29 | Corey LaJoie | 0.02% | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Aric Almirola | 0.20% | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | A.J. Allmendinger | 0.02% | 30 | 0 | 0 |
2023 has been the year of Hendrick Motorsports, so perhaps this is the year Kyle Larson ($14,000), one of the most prolific dirt racers of all time, puts it all together in his main series.
Larson's 136.0 driver rating led the race last year, but he never recovered track position from an ill-timed pit stop to win it. He just dominated last week at Richmond -- the series' first low-grip track of the year. Everything is pointing the way of "Yung Money" entering this one.
However, longtime dirt rival Christopher Bell ($13,500) should also be a threat. Bell had the same issue last year after two top-five stage finishes and, via his work at the other asphalt tracks in the sample, enters with this week's fastest median lap blend.
Kyle Busch ($11,500) has been surprisingly solid in this event, leading in both years. He's also driving the car Tyler Reddick ($13,000) nearly won inside a year ago. Busch's struggles last week in Richmond aside, he's a decent threat.
It's also foolish to count out William Byron ($12,500) when Byron has led significant laps in nearly every 2023 event. He finished sixth here in 2021, too.
There is a collection of drivers without a dirt background that have consistently run well here. Joey Logano ($12,000) won the 2021 event and finished third last year. Denny Hamlin ($9,500) and Daniel Suarez ($9,000) also had top-10 median lap times at Bristol in the 2022 event.
Jim's model and I both expect Ross Chastain ($10,000) to join them soon the way he's dominated slicker tracks on the circuit before. Chastain might find a similar leap in 2023 that Busch did in 2022 as a perpetual slick-track threat.
The dirt racers deserve some love, too. Chase Briscoe ($11,000) and Alex Bowman ($8,200) had top-10 median times a year ago, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,500) likely would have joined them if not for a mechanical issue. Surprisingly, Austin Dillon ($6,800) -- a former Truck Series winner on dirt at Eldora -- didn't get the salary bump the other dirt devils did.
Short-track ace Josh Berry ($7,000) is a late model guy, so I'll reserve judgment until practice whether his skill translates to the soil. Ryan Preece ($5,200) is a threat at just about any type of short track, too.
I enter this weekend with drivers that just have not shown comfort here to possess true upside into a top-10 finish. That list would largely include Brad Keselowski ($8,000), Kevin Harvick ($7,200), Bubba Wallace ($6,500), and Austin Cindric ($5,500). Without significant speed in practice or qualifying, I just won't get to any despite the salary discount from normal.
