NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Advent Health 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the Advent Health 400 at Kansas Speedway on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

This is one of my favorite DFS weekends of the year because we have significant underlying data.

We ran at Las Vegas in March, and Las Vegas and Kansas are as close as two tracks get to each other on NASCAR's circuit. They're 1.5-mile, multi-groove ovals with moderate tire wear. Usually, if a driver runs well at one, they run well at another.

That gives us an idea of what to expect in Saturday's traditional joint session. While Passing is never easy in NASCAR in 2023, there are options, and the field should shuffle a bit from the qualifying results.

Overall, this is a pretty standard weekend without much pizzazz.

General Lineup Strategy

With 267 laps available to lead (and 26.7 FanDuel points for doing so), this isn't a week where laps led are the only priority.

However, at Las Vegas in March, Kyle Larson and William Byron combined to lead 239 of the 271 laps. We didn't really see green-flag passes for the lead, so there should be a pair of drivers who cycle out front on Sunday.

Tire wear is significant enough that you'll want four new ones whenever caution waves except short bursts to end stages -- or the race. That can help keep the lead in the same driver's hands.

Only two of the top-10 finishers at Las Vegas this season started outside the top-15 spots, and that maintains the trend from last year's pair of races at Kansas. Of the 20 top-10 finishers here last year, just 6 started outside the top-15 spots.

Though it's possible to pass, perhaps chasing place-differential points in droves is a bit of a fool's errand this weekend with qualifying to bring the faster cars to the front.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank is the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar race tracks to this weekend as a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

2023 Las Vegas (Spring) - 60%
2023 Fontana (Spring) - 25%
2022 Kansas (Fall) - 15%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

After dominating both Kansas races in 2020, Kyle Larson ($14,000) just led 29 laps here last year. That figures to change after Hendrick Motorsports swept the podium at Las Vegas earlier this year.

Larson led 63 laps and was leading before a late caution, which William Byron ($13,500) used to reclaim the lead. Byron led 176 laps with the better car and won the race. I don't see a particularly huge gap between them.

Teammate Chase Elliott ($12,500) broke his leg right before that one, but Elliott also failed to post a top-six median time at Fontana or Kansas last September. Elliott lagging behind his teammates at 1.5-mile tracks isn't a new trend, so I'll likely prioritize the other Hendrick drivers unless he's lightning-quick in practice.

Ross Chastain ($13,000) had a top-six median time at both Fontana and Las Vegas this year, and leading last week at Dover was a good sign his speed is improving across the board. Chastain finished seventh in both Kansas races last season, but I'm not sure he matches the Hendrick guys' upside.

Though not finding the front often, Denny Hamlin ($12,000) has the fastest median blend this weekend on the strength of top-five times at all tracks in the sample. He's probably a better fit if he starts a tiny bit deeper for place-differential points.

I don't wholly trust the speed of Hamlin's teammates, Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500) and Christopher Bell ($10,500), but they grade out better than I expected them to -- with top-eight median times, too.

Of course, the team Hamlin owns, 23XI Racing, swept the Kansas races a year ago. Tyler Reddick ($11,000) wasn't driving for them then, but he won the pole at Kansas in the fall and was poised to dominate with his old team before a tire issue. Now in the winning car from a year ago, watch out. Bubba Wallace ($9,000) won here last September, too.

Kyle Busch ($10,000) wasn't quite as strong at Vegas, but winning Fontana is a good omen for these intermediate ovals. He's probably the last true contender on speed.

All of these drivers are Toyotas and Chevrolets, and if those are the fastest manufacturers, you're looking at Daniel Suarez ($8,000), Josh Berry ($7,500), Ty Gibbs ($7,200), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000), and Austin Dillon ($5,800) as the key value plays who could run with their teammates.

That leaves Ford on the outside looking in a bit, but Kevin Harvick ($8,500) bucks that trend. He was the only Ford with a top-10 median time at Fontana or Vegas, and he delivered such a time at both. Harvick's value salary is friendly enough that we don't really need laps led if he snags another top-10 finish.