NCAA Tournament Stock Watch: Will Ben Simmons Make It to March Madness?

Last week, the Associated Press' number 3, 4, 5, and 6 teams went 3-4 and paved the way for two new teams to enter the top five.

So, you know, just business as usual for the topsy-turvy college basketball season to which we've all become accustomed.

This week, we'll take a look a bit further down the ranks to find teams quietly improving their tournament stock as the top 10 continues to shuck and jive. Meanwhile, we'll examine the case of Ben Simmons, who may earn the dubious distinction of being the best player without a spot in the bracket come Selection Sunday.

Bull Market

Utah
Current Rank: 22nd
Last Week: NR
Change: +4

It's easy to get a bit lost in the shuffle in the Pac 12, thanks to East Coast bias, late tip-off times, and the scene-stealing color commentary of Bill Walton, but Utah finally joined the Top 25 as a deserving third team to represent their conference in the rankings. Utah's resume is undeniably solid. The Utes' figure of seven top-50 wins trails only Kansas, Oregon, and Oklahoma. Their 14 top-100 wins are as many as projected 1 seeds Kansas and Villanova have and behind only Oregon nationally. Led by one of the best big men in the country, Jakob Poeltl, Utah has won 9 of their last 11, rebounding nicely from an 0-2 visit to the state of Oregon by sweeping their UCLA-USC road trip. We're projecting Utah as a 4 seed in our latest bracketology, thanks in part to their neutral court wins over Duke, Temple, and Texas Tech. With their final three at home, and now just a half game behind Arizona and Oregon in the Pac 12 standings, Larry Krystkowiak's bunch just might surprise everyone and steal the Pac 12 regular season title. 

California
Current Rank: NR
Last Week: NR
Change: 0

Cal's always had potential with highly-regarded freshman Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb in tow. After beating Arizona and Oregon over a 7-2 stretch, the Golden Bears are rounding into form as a team no one is going to want to see in their bracket pod. Cal's got 11 top-100 wins and just one "bad" loss, good for a 6 seed in our latest bracket projection. While Cal has struggled to generate turnovers, they have defended inside the arc better than just about anyone in the country. According to KenPom, Cal allows the fourth-lowest Effective Field Goal Percentage in the nation and a lower shooting percentage on two-pointers than any other team.

Texas Tech
Current Rank: NR
Last Week: NR
Change: 0

As recently as two weeks ago, Texas Tech wasn't drawing much NCAA Tournament consideration or discussion, sitting at 3-7 in the Big 12, well behind the pack in the nation's best conference. But Tubby Smith has led the Red Raiders to four straight wins, including home victories over Oklahoma and Iowa State and a win at Baylor. Just like that, Texas Tech is 22nd in RPI, 32nd in KenPom's rankings, and a 7 seed in our bracketology. Texas Tech's record is not as impressive as the teams ahead of them in the Big 12, but only two of their nine losses are to teams with an RPI worse than 22nd.

Bear Market

LSU
Current Rank: NR
Last Week: NR
Change: 0

LSU has had a turbulent season to say the least, but the talent on its roster, led by super freshman Ben Simmons, has kept the flicker of hope alive that the Bayou Bengals would coalesce enough to leap past some of the mediocre competition they face on the NCAA Tournament bubble. That may have been the case after the Tigers started SEC play 9-3 to rebound from a lackluster 7-5 start to the year that included losses to Marquette, Wake Forest, and the College of Charleston. But a home loss to Alabama and a loss at Tennessee have LSU at 16-11 with four defeats outside the RPI top 100. Wins over Florida or Kentucky, or a deep run in the SEC Tournament could help move things back in the right direction, but with a possible season-ending injury to second-leading scorer Keith Hornsby, and Ben Simmons' recent benching for academic reasons, there's not enough evidence to confidently assume that LSU has what it takes to seize its few remaining opportunities.

Dayton
Current Rank: NR
Last Week: 15th
Change: -11

Number 15 has to be the unluckiest spot in the rankings, as Dayton became the second team in as many weeks to be ranked 15th one week, and fall out of the Top 25 completely the very next week (joining Texas A&M). Losses at Saint Joseph's and to a desperate St. Bonaventure's team aren't enough to make anyone worry too much, but they start to put a ceiling on Dayton's seeding potential. With a strength of schedule ranked 101st, and a really bad loss to La Salle on its resume, the Flyers likely need to run the table through the A-10 Tournament to finish with a top-4 seed.

Providence
Current Rank: NR
Last Week: 23rd
Change: -4

Providence has gone from being ranked 10th in the country to, suddenly, having a bit of a murky NCAA Tournament outlook. Barring an absolute collapse, the Friars should be comfortably in the field, but the regression that power rankings like ours and KenPom's were calling for has certainly come to fruition. Since winning at Villanova on January 24, Providence is 2-5, including losses to DePaul and Marquette. A loss at Seton Hall on Thursday would drop the Friars to below .500 in the Big East, and increase the likelihood that they'll face a tough draw in the Big East Tournament, and be seeded as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament.