6 Fantasy Football Splits That Matter for Week 3

Jamarcus Nelson Is Thy Name

John Brown was first diagnosed with sickle-cell trait in Week 7 of last season. Although his condition has forced him to officially miss only two contests (including last week), J.J. Nelson has out-snapped Brown in seven of the past nine games the duo have been active together.

There's no denying that Brown is an asset when healthy and brings another dimension to Arizona's offense that can't be replicated by any of his teammates. That can further be proven by using our in-house metric, Net Expected Points (NEP). NEP tracks each team's and each player's efficiency with the team metrics being adjusted for strength of opponent. A nine-yard completion on 3rd and 10 is different than a nine-yard completion in 3rd and 8, which NEP accounts for.

Brown's Reception NEP per target of 0.69 was tied with Nelson for the highest among Arizona pass catchers, but his Success Rate -- the percentage of catches that positively impact NEP -- of 97.44% was the highest.

Of course, that's when Brown was healthy. Nelson has made the most of his opportunities with Brown hampered, averaging 7.4 targets, 4.2 receptions, 89 yards, and 19.1 fantasy points in the last five games his teammate failed to record a single snap. Even with both healthy in Week 1, Nelson notably finished with 7.1 more fantasy points despite receiving 33 fewer snaps.

Larry Fitzgerald's floor is admittedly higher than Nelson's, making him the safer pick in both season-long formats and cash games on FanDuel. However, Fitzgerald has eclipsed 82 yards receiving only once in his last 18 games, whereas Nelson has hauled in eight touchdowns over his last 11. As long as Carson Palmer can work inside of a clean pocket, Nelson is primed to continue flourishing in place of Brown.