Week 13 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Josh Gordon Is Back
Receiving Market Shares
1. Josh Gordon Is Back
Finally. No more foreplay. Let's just drool over this bad, bad man.
In his first game back, Josh Gordon accounted for 11 of the Cleveland Browns' 28 targets (34.4%), 6 of 13 deep targets (46.2% of the throws that traveled at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage), and one of five red-zone targets. Not only did he get volume, but most of it was of the high-leverage variety.
Not surprisingly, Gordon was the target for 47.8% of the team's intended air yards, according to FantasyADHD.com. For reference, only three players the entire week had more air yards than Gordon. Despite the layoff, they were using him like their clear top option in the passing game.
This forces us to act fast in how we evaluate Gordon. If we wait too long to see how things play out, pricing will have adjusted to account for his new role. He's $6,700 on FanDuel for Week 14, meaning this is certainly not the case yet. He's simply underpriced. But there are two factors to keep in mind here.
First, Gordon's quarterback play will be sub-par. DeShone Kizer has lost 78.34 expected points as a passer this year, which is what happens when you have 6 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. Having an extra weapon should help in that regard, but this is far from an elite offense.
Second, there will be nothing sneaky about using Gordon in Week 14. People will know what he did in his return, and a matchup with the Green Bay Packers is mighty enticing. High-ownership players in bad offenses are a risky proposition, so you do have reason not to plug in Gordon on Sunday.
Even with that said, though, we should likely just bite the bullet and load him up. As mentioned, Gordon is underpriced, which takes a bit of the sting out of using a popular asset. And although he's in a poor offense, guys like DeAndre Hopkins have shown that this doesn't matter as much when you are being force-fed targets. Investing in Gordon carries plenty of risk, but it's justified risk with all that he brings to the table.
2. Marquise Goodwin's Value Rises
In the section on Hyde, we talked about the performance of Garoppolo. Again, he looked pretty solid for the 49ers on Sunday. Beyond the running backs, it seems like Marquise Goodwin would be the other guy in line for a value increase should that performance hold.
Goodwin led the team with 8 of 36 targets with two of those being deep (out of six total deep attempts). He had 25.7% of the team's air yards, which also led the team. It certainly doesn't hurt matters that he caught all eight of those targets.
It's not as if Goodwin just popped up out of nowhere, either. He has had at least eight targets in five of the past eight games, two of which came before Pierre Garcon's season-ending injury. His usage has been inconsistent due to injuries, but he still has 35.9% of the team's deep targets on the year. It was just hard to invest when the guys throwing him the football were struggling so much.
This is important because the 49ers find themselves in a cozy matchup with the Houston Texans in Week 14. The Texans are superbly beat up on defense, and the game will be indoors. We may want to give this passing offense a sniff, forcing us to know who's the top option within it. That seems to be Goodwin for now, putting him firmly on the radar at $5,700.
3. Kenny Stills Solidifies His Role
Previously, the narrative was that you could use Kenny Stills only when Matt Moore was at quarterback for the Dolphins. Sunday seemed to put a bit of a dent into that thought.
Even with Jay Cutler reclaiming his starting job, Stills feasted against the Denver Broncos with 13 targets, more than twice as many as any other player on the team. The 13 targets were a new season high for Stills, but he has been seeing increased volume for a while now.
From Week 7 on, Stills has 22.6% of the team's overall targets and 41.2% of their deep targets. If we look at just the five games since DeVante Parker's return, those two numbers are 21.8% and 38.9%, respectively. He's far from being a target monster, but Stills is a pretty important member of this offense. It's time for us to change the way that we perceive him.
By this point, it should be pretty clear that Stills is positioned above Parker within the offense, and that's an intriguing proposition for a guy with his upside. Jarvis Landry will still be the more steady asset in the passing game, but Stills is going to be tempting every week for tournaments.
We have to be a bit wary with Stills because so many of his targets are deep down the field, making him a volatile player who is unappealing at high ownership. And it's likely best not to use him against teams that play a bend-but-don't-break style of defense, which is what he'll see in Week 14 against the New England Patriots. But once he gets beyond that, feel free to lock and load Stills more liberally on your tournament rosters.
