5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 6

David Johnson's Touchdown Dependency Not a Fluke

Usually you're going to want to stay far, far away from a player in a bottom-two offense that has had his fantasy value buoyed by five touchdowns in as many games. A situation like that screams "regression" and appears on the surface to be an obvious sell-high spot.

That's not the case with David Johnson, though.

DJ is playing in an Arizona Cardinals offense that we have as the 31st-ranked unit in football. Their 65 points for are the second-fewest in football, and even the four teams that have played only four games are out-scoring them by big margins. But they are absolutely all-in on giving Johnson the ball when they do get in scoring range.

Among all players not named "David Johnson", the league's highest red zone opportunity market share is 51.3%, and only two players sit at or above 50%. Only 3 players have red zone target market shares of 50% or higher. Nobody has a rushing market share higher than 85.7%, and that is the only mark above 80%.

Johnson currently boasts a 90% rushing market share, 50% target market share and 72.2% opportunity market share. His opportunity market share even jumps to 75.0% if we narrow our view to the 10-yard line and in.

There may not be a lot of touchdowns to go around in Arizona, but DJ is going to continue scoring the bulk of them.