5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 6

Play DeSean Jackson in a High-Scoring Affair

The Atlanta Falcons versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup boasts a 57.5-point over/under, with the Falcons favored by 3 points. Unsurprisingly, DeSean Jackson thrives in shootouts. He does particularly well in high-scoring games that Vegas predicts to come down to one possession (a 7-point spread or less).

In these games he sees an increase of 1.5 targets, 1.2 receptions and 24.9 receiving yards per game.

Any increase in targets bodes particularly well for Jackson this year, as he leads all pass-catchers with 1.64 Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target -- an efficiency metric that measures how a team's expected point total is affected on any given play. In a game with players like Julio Jones and Mike Evans likely to command the spotlight, Jackson is a terrific tournament play at $6,500.