5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 10

Keenan Allen is a Problem as a Favorite

Keenan Allen has been operating on the wrong side of variance since Week 1, when he scored his only touchdown of the year. Despite only scoring once, he's racked up 630 yards on 43 receptions.

Based on his high yardage total, we would expect Allen to have scored 2.78 more touchdowns than he has so far. And there's no better time for regression to hit than when he's favored.

This week, the Los Angeles Chargers get to face the Oakland Raiders and their bottom-of-the-league pass defense. The Chargers are favored by 10 points (stay up to date with line movement using numberFire's DFS Heat Map), and when they are favored Allen excels.

He sees a boost of 1.7 targets and is wildly more efficient at producing yards on those targets; he averages 2.3 more yards per target when favored. At $7,900, Allen is the main slate's second-best value at wide receiver, per our DFS projections.