Week 11 Game Scripts to Target for Daily Fantasy Football
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Over/Under: 48.00
Colts Implied Team Total: 25.00
Titans Implied Team Total: 23.00
There is a cluster of games with totals between 48 to 51, but this one stood out the most. To start, it's in a dome and features a minuscule spread between evenly-matched teams, so it should be a relatively close game. With both offenses finally clicking, hitting the over is a reasonable projection. One of the biggest edges in DFS is identifying which games will hit the over in the face of public consensus.
Dion Lewis, RB, Tennessee Titans
FanDuel Price: $5,900
Make no mistake, this is Dion Lewis' backfield. Unfortunately, the Titans still prefer Derrick Henry at the goal line, hurting Lewis' ceiling. Still, Lewis' 79.8% snap rate, 19.5 carries and receiving usage over his last two games put him closer to workhorse status than committee member. After being an extremely chalky play in Week 10 but not delivering, Lewis is an ideal DFS target. The Colts have allowed the third-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this season.
TY Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $6,800
There are several reasons to love T.Y. Hilton this week. He's playing at home, where he averages 3.2 more fantasy points per game for his career. His price is the cheapest it's been all season. And he should see a ton of Malcolm Butler, one of the worst cornerbacks in the league this season. These are prime GPP conditions.
Others to Consider
The good news is both Marcus Mariota ($7,100) and Corey Davis ($6,200) have good matchups and are still to cheap given their usage. Mariota is affordable given his rushing floor (and he's finally healthy), while Davis is far too cheap for a target market share north of 30%, a DeAndre Hopkins-esque number. The bad news is both should be relatively high-owned for those reasons and coming off monster performances. Mariota should have lower ownership than Davis, even relative to his position.
Due to the breadth of weapons, the Indy side is a bit tougher to parse through. All Andrew Luck ($7,800) does is throw touchdowns, making him a comfortable option in both cash and GPPs. Since shaking off the rust and adjusting to a new offense early in the season, Luck has been on a tear, averaging 25.72 points per game since Week 4. That would rank him second behind just Patrick Mahomes on the season, which tells us he's priced too low.
Call me stubborn, but I have no problem fading Eric Ebron ($6,000) this week. Tennessee has been the toughest matchup in the league for tight ends, keyed by stud safety Kevin Byard, while Ebron's touchdown scoring is simply unsustainable. The dude scored three touchdowns on four touches last week! The GPP leverage play is Jack Doyle ($5,400), who is cheaper despite playing considerably more snaps and running more routes.
That leaves us with Marlon Mack ($7,000). On paper, Tennessee is a bad matchup, holding backfields to the third-fewest points per game. Still, a home favorite playing behind a mauling offensive line, Mack makes for a solid contrarian GPP play.
Eli Weiner is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Eli Weiner also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Eweiner2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
