Week 14 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under: 51.5

Steelers Implied Team Total: 31.25
Raiders Implied Team Total: 20.25

This is only the second time the Oakland Raiders have appeared in this column, getting the nod from last week's matchup against the Chiefs. This week they make the cut largely thanks to the Pittsburgh Steelers' impressive 30-plus team total. Still, at home, Oakland managed to hang tough with the Chiefs and put up 33 points. Surprisingly, the Raiders actually average 25 points per game at home this season. So hopefully they're able to at least put up some points and keep this one interesting. If you don't think that's likely, then the simple advice is to hammer the Steelers' side and leave the Raiders' skill players alone.

Stevan Ridley, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $4,500

This is going out on a bit of a limb, but the truth is we really don't know who's going to tote the rock for the Steelers on Sunday, with first-team reps split among three backs in practice. The guy to target is whoever helps salt away the clock as big favorites, and Stevan Ridley fits the bill more than Jaylen Samuels ($4,600) does. When James Conner left the Week 10 game against the Carolina Panthers, Ridley carried the ball eight times (for 26 yards) compared to Samuels' five (for just seven yards). Last year in a meaningless Week 17 game, Ridley was a workhorse for the Steelers, carrying the ball 17 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. While Samuels wasn't on the roster at the time, there were seven carries distributed to backups, a reasonable projection for Samuels, who never once had more than 12 carries in a game in college.

It seems clear the Steelers trust Ridley as the early-down runner and Samuels more in passing situations. If that ends up being the case and Ridley gets the early-down work plus the goal line carries, then Ridley is an exciting GPP option. Oakland's run defense ranks third-last in numberFire's Net Expected Points model, and while the pass defense actually ranks dead-last, the Raiders allow the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs. This is likely due to teams always beating the Raiders and facing positive game script, something we're projecting Pittsburgh to do. Ultimately, neither Ridley nor Samuels projects as a cash lock, and I'm expecting Ridley to have much lower GPP ownership despite his role.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $7,500

This one is pretty simple. As referenced above, Oakland ranks dead-last against the pass, per our metrics. JuJu will run against 33-year-old Leon Hall in the slot (he actually turns 34 on Sunday). JuJu is the WR10 on the year yet is priced as the WR11 on this slate alone, so he's a bit undervalued given his to-date production and matchup. The Raiders are tied for allowing the most completions of 40 yards or more this season. He's playable in cash and GPPs.

Others to Consider

Ben Roethlisberger has been much better at home than on the road for his career, but has still been playable on the road this year. Still, as the second-most expensive QB on the slate, he's a tough sell on the road outside of GPP stacks with his receivers. One of those receivers is sir Antonio Brown ($8,800) who is up to the WR4 on the year. While that makes him possibly a tinge overpriced as the top-receiver on the slate, AB has 13 targets in three straight games and should easily rip this old, tanking defense apart.

The Raiders give up the most points per game to tight ends, giving Vance McDonald ($5,500) some viable GPP life. Still, it's worth pointing out most of his big games have come when Pittsburgh is stuck in close games, while this could easily be a blowout. The Pittsburgh D/ST ($4,700) remains a strong play despite the top-echelon price. Per Evan Silva of Rotoworld, Derek Carr has now taken 3 or more sacks in 9 of his last 10 games, while Oakland has allowed seven of its last 10 opponents to finish in the top 10 of weekly defense scoring.

It's tough to trust the Oakland side even after putting up 33 points last week. PIttsburgh's defense grades out as the 11th-best (10th against the pass, 11th against the run) in the league per numberFire's Net Expected Points Model, while Oakland's Week 13 opponent Kansas City ranks eighth-worst. Ultimately, I wouldn't blame you for avoiding this team altogether.

The most consistent play is Jared Cook ($6,300), who has a sterling 20% target market share over Oakland's last four games. He's the sixth-most expensive tight end on the slate despite checking in as comfortably the TE5 on the year. He's an alright GPP play, but there are better options tied to larger team totals.

If you're playing Cook, you should at least entertain the idea of stacking him with Derek Carr ($6,600) in GPPs, if only for Carr's basement-level price. Carr was legit last week, completing 76% of his passes for 285 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Still, that was against a worse defense and Carr has put up duds in better spots before.

The good news is all of Oakland's receivers are cheap; the bad news is they play for Oakland. Jordy Nelson ($5,000) had a season-high 10 catches last week, which feels more like an anomaly than anything else considering he had just one target across his previous two games before that. No other receiver surpassed 25 yards last week despite Carr nearly hitting the 300-yard mark.

Doug Martin ($6,000) is dealing with a knee injury and his status is therefore up in the air for Sunday's game. Martin isn't a recommended play as an 11.5-point underdog in a tough matchup anyway, but monitoring injury reports will be important for determining the usage of everyone else in the backfield. The Raiders signed C.J. Anderson ($4,500), indicating Martin may not play. Anderson isn't recommended with such short notice to learn the playbook.

This projected negative script figures to benefit Jalen "Charlie Garner" Richard ($4,800) more anyway. Still, despite often playing with a lead, the Steelers allow the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs. With Martin out Richard may see more touches, but even in negative game script, he's nothing more than a GPP punt.

Eli Weiner is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Eli Weiner also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Eweiner2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.