3 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in the Wild Card Round

Indianapolis Colts' Passing Offense

Whether you're playing the Saturday-only slate or the full four-game slate, one thing is abundantly clear: you're going to want to load up on this game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.

The total is up to 48 points after opening at 47, according to Sports Insights. Yes, it's the third time they've faced each other, but with this game containing the two worst pass defenses on the slate, we should likely still be pretty jazzed about both sides.

The only issue is deciding which side we should favor. The Texans are at home, and Deshaun Watson has been lava hot recently. The Colts finished the year ranked 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, so you're going to want some stacks with Watson and DeAndre Hopkins in your life.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans were ranked 20th against the pass. That's a hair better than the Colts. But when you look specifically at where they excel, it shows how well the Colts are positioned entering Saturday.

There's no question that the strength of this Texans defense is their line play with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney up front. They finished 13th in adjusted sack rate, according to Football Outsiders, so the guys up front did their job during the regular season.

Against teams with a poor offensive line, that would be an issue. And in the past, the Colts absolutely would have qualified as such. But 2018 was just a glaring exception to that expectation.

For the entire season, the Colts lost just 34.48 Passing NEP due to sacks. That was the second-lowest mark in the entire league, and it becomes the best when you adjust for the total number of drop backs. Their 2.73% sack rate allowed was also the best in the league.

It's pretty obvious that Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, and Eric Ebron are all studs. But the strength of this Colts offense this year was the offensive line. That strength may be able to neutralize the Texans' studs up front, and if they do, it'll put Luck in position for a big game.

The one slight issue with this argument is that the Texans' secondary didn't allow grotesque passing marks this year even when you factor sacks out (as Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play does account for sacks). They ranked 20th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed thanks to 15 interceptions, meaning other teams didn't necessarily take advantage when they were able to get rid of the ball.

A look at the Texans' schedule can help explain this one.

In the regular season, the Texans managed to play only four games against quarterbacks who finished in the top 15 in Passing NEP per drop back (out of 43 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs). That's compared to nine games against quarterbacks who finished 26th or worse in this metric, including five contests against quarterbacks ranked outside the top 32. They faced a ton of awful quarterbacks, so you can understand why the passing marks against them are mediocre while the schedule-adjusted numbers are a bit more harsh.

It also doesn't help that the competent quarterbacks who faced them lit it up. In the four games against top-15 quarterbacks, the opposing passer averaged 402.75 yards and 3.25 touchdowns per game. Two of those were by Luck, but more recently, it was Nick Foles. Foles -- who finished 15th in Passing NEP per drop back while Luck was eighth -- had 471 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a pick against this secondary. If you keep them upright, good things will happen.

In two matchups with the Colts this year, the Texans did manage to bring Luck to the turf six times, but it was on 109 total drop backs. A 5.5% sack rate would have ranked ninth in the league this year. The Colts' rebuilt offensive line is a force, and they allow us to get excited about Luck at $8,400 on the Saturday-only slate and $8,200 on the four-game slate.

The other plus with Luck is that you know exactly where the ball is going in this offense. It all revolves around Hilton and Ebron.

The most relevant sample on this team is the five games since Jack Doyle's season-ending injury, a span of five games. Here's how the targets have been divided since then with a "deep" target being anything at least 16 yards downfield. The listed salaries are for the Saturday-only slate.

All those deep targets have allowed Hilton to swim in yardage. He has at least 61 receiving yards in each game, topping 130 twice. One of those games was a whopping 199-yard effort against this Texans defense.

If you're looking to nitpick, you'll notice that Hilton hasn't scored a touchdown in that span. His red-zone role has also been a bit less substantial than it was earlier in the year, which is a bummer. That shouldn't be enough to push us off of him, though.

Even without the benefit of any touchdowns, Hilton has hit double-digit FanDuel points in five of his past six games. He's averaging 14.6 points per game in this span just on yardage and receptions alone. Hilton may have the highest upside on the slate if he hits paydirt, so he stacks perfectly with Luck and is a tremendous stand-alone play.

As for Ebron, he's one of few palatable tight ends even when you expand things to look at the four-game slate. Ebron's market share the past four games ranks second among tight ends, trailing only Zach Ertz. The Colts' implied team total, though, is almost a full touchdown higher than the Philadelphia Eagles'. Ebron's not cheap, but if you want a player at his position with a legit role in his offense, he's likely the most cost-effective option you've got.

You'll notice on the table above that Nyheim Hines is listed, as well. He's not a lock to get volume, but his role is intriguing at his salary.

In each of the five games since Doyle's injury, Hines has gotten at least five targets. He also leads the team in red-zone targets in that time with five. That's despite the Colts going 4-1 in that time, which would seemingly limit Hines' involvement.

In games the Colts have won this year, Hines' snap rate is just 33.4% with Marlon Mack playing 57.9% of the snaps. But in losses, Hines' snap rate shoots up to 59.4% while Mack's slides to 36.6%. And yet Hines has still gotten a steady diet of targets recently.

If you assume the Colts win, Hines is in play. He's getting high-leverage targets, and he'll save you a ton of salary at $4,800 on both slates. But if you assume the Colts lose, it means Hines should be on the field plenty. That makes him a tremendous part of a game stack with Watson and Hopkins, allowing you to use those two while still holding the flexibility to pay up for a high-salary running back. Speaking of which...