Assessing the Biggest Weakness of Each of 2018's NFL Playoff Teams

NFC

New Orleans Saints

Biggest Weakness: Pass Defense

There is absolutely no doubt that the New Orleans Saints' defense improved as the season went along. They made some changes to adjust for personnel, and they added to their group by acquiring Eli Apple at the trade deadline.

But when you compare their pass defense to other playoff teams, it still leaves something to be desired.

Overall, the Saints finished 18th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. Among playoff teams, that ranks 10th out of 12 teams, ahead of only the Texans and Colts. Stopping the pass is critical for success, and the Saints haven't always been able to do so.

It's worth noting that full-season rankings will be deceptive for a team that showed major improvements within the season. But even after adding Apple in Week 8, the Saints still allowed both Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger to have big, efficient passing games in the Superdome. The Saints are better now than they were, but they're not bulletproof by any means.

Los Angeles Rams

Biggest Weakness: Rush Defense

As mentioned before, it's more important to stop the pass than to stop the rush. There were only six teams this year that allowed worse expected points numbers when the opposing team was rushing than when they were passing.

The Los Angeles Rams were one of them.

Again, this isn't a huge issue in general, and if it's your biggest deficiency, you're probably sitting pretty. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has always been willing to let up production on the ground if it meant you couldn't gash him through the air.

This could, though, pose some trouble for the Rams in the divisional round. Their three potential opponents are the Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks. The Cowboys and Seahawks are infatuated with the ground game, and the Bears just got guard Kyle Long back from injured reserve last week. Decreasing the sample size and keeping the Rams' offense off the field is always desirable, and teams should be able to successfully execute on that plan with the style of defense that the Rams play.

Chicago Bears

Biggest Weakness: Offense on the Road

Seeing Mitchell Trubisky succeed this year has been fun given his struggles in 2017. It has helped erase some of the concerns around him coming into the season.

There are still lingering questions, though, when the offense has to hit the road.

Here's a look at Trubisky's splits this year based on where the game has been played. Keep in mind that both of the games he missed were on the road, which does cut down the sample size on those numbers.

The touchdown numbers are partially due to a couple of blow-up games at home and a larger sample. But the overall efficiency numbers do raise some concerns.

Luckily for Trubisky, the Bears kick off the playoffs at home against the Eagles. That's a spot where he could excel with their secondary banged up. But a win would send them on the road to face the Rams, a ferocious defensive front that ranked 10th against the pass for the full season. They roughed Trubisky up in their first meeting, and a rematch would certainly be a tough assignment for someone who has shown a ton of improvement.

Dallas Cowboys

Biggest Weakness: Offense on the Road

Same story, different quarterback.

Dak Prescott blew up last week against the New York Giants, and that game was in the Meadowlands. But for the full season, Dak's efficiency marks have hit the tubes outside of Jerry World.

This has been true even with Amari Cooper in town, as well. In three road games with Cooper prior to Week 17, Prescott averaged just 0.03 Passing NEP per drop back. With either the Saints or the Rams next up on the docket, the Cowboys are going to have to score points to keep up. That could be difficult with how the team has performed on the road this year.

Seattle Seahawks

Biggest Weakness: Avoiding Sacks

If you look at raw sack numbers, the Seahawks don't stand out too much. They allowed 50 sacks for the full season, ranking 25th in the league and 10th among playoff teams. But once you account for how few times they threw, it becomes a major issue.

For the full season, Russell Wilson recorded just 471 drop backs. That means he was sacked on a whopping 10.6% of his drop backs, the second-highest mark in the league. These weren't low-impact sacks, either, as they ranked 31st in Sack NEP per drop back, besting only the Miami Dolphins.

One potential saving grace for the Seahawks is that guard D.J. Fluker is expected to return from injury on Saturday. Fluker hasn't started since Week 13, and his presence has been huge for the team this year. According to The Quant Edge's injury tool, the Seahawks have allowed a 13.9% sack rate this year without Fluker compared to 7.8% when he has been on the field. That 7.8% sack rate still would have ranked just 23rd in the league for the full season, but it's leaps and bounds better than where they are without him.

Philadelphia Eagles

Biggest Weakness: Health

As Foles has shown again this year, the offense can still function when Carson Wentz is out. Foles finished the year ranked 15th in Passing NEP per drop back, a couple of spots behind Wentz in 11th. It's a downgrade, but it certainly won't kill the entire team. Their injuries on the defensive side of the ball, though, are a different story.

In Week 6, it was Sidney Jones who got hurt. Then it was Derek Barnett's turn to go down. Things have gotten steadily worse from there, and they've taken the Eagles' defensive metrics down with them.

Included in that latter sample are games where they faced Bortles, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Johnson. Three of the four playoff quarterbacks they faced in that sample absolutely torched them. We might need to start talking more about this side of the ball and less about the quarterbacking situation.

This week, they'll face Trubisky. He's not on the same level as Drew Brees and Deshaun Watson, but as mentioned, he can do some special things at home. That could be a major hurdle for the Eagles right from the jump. If they do get the win there, they'll head down to New Orleans to face Brees a few months after he hung 363 yards and 4 tuddies on them in the Superdome. The Eagles overcame a boatload of injuries to win the Super Bowl last year, and they'll need to do the same here if they want to repeat as champions.