3 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in the Divisional Round
Last week, we were starved for offense in daily fantasy football.
One of the biggest plays of the week was a pass interference call against Prince Amukamara. Two pass-catchers in the perfect lineup had fewer than 40 receiving yards. We cheered every time the Seattle Seahawks decided not to have a running back slam into the backside of his offensive linemen. It was as if we were being punished for all the fireworks we saw during the regular season.
Things figure to be just a wee bit different in the divisional round.
The four best offenses in football by numberFire's metrics were all on bye last week and now rejoin the fold. The league's two best defenses -- the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens -- are out of the running. Last week's highest total of 48.5 for the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans would rank fourth on this slate. You really can't get much different than these two offerings, and it's going to make for some exciting football.
We just have to figure out the right way to attack it.
Because all of these record-breaking offenses are back in our lives, it's not going to be easy to afford all the studs we want to use. As such, we're going to have to be selective about where we pay up and use that ever-valuable salary.
One thing that can help us decide where to burn that cash is matchups. By this point in the season, most of the worst defenses in the league have been weeded out, but there are still some plus spots we can hone in on when filling out our lineups.
We can use numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) to decide where those advantages lie. NEP is the metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players, showing the expected points added or subtracted on each play throughout the year. This means NEP can quantify the massive difference between a three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 and a three-yard completion on 3rd and 4, better allowing us to see which offenses operate in the most efficient manner.
With FanDuel offering a Saturday-only, Sunday-only, and Saturday through Sunday slate this week, we'll try to focus a bit on each offering. Any salaries referenced in the piece will come from the four-game slate.
Now that we've got palatable choices again, which matchups should we be looking to exploit in the divisional round? Let's check it out.