3 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in the Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams' Passing Offense

From purely a matchup perspective, it may be a bit odd to plug the Los Angeles Rams here. They're facing the Cowboys, who shut down the New Orleans Saints just a few weeks ago. But things change pretty dramatically with this game being in Los Angeles, and the Rams can help give us some savings as a result.

Let's start on the Cowboys' side of things. They finished the year ranked 15th against the pass, based on numberFire's metrics, which probably seems low given that it factors in how impressive that performance against the Saints was. The key for that game is that it happened in Dallas, and this was a different defense on the road.

Here's what quarterbacks have done against the Cowboys this year (including the playoffs) based on where the game has been played. "Success Rate" is the percentage of drop backs that increase the team's expected points for the drive, and "Passing NEP/P" is short for Passing NEP per drop back.

You'll note that the touchdown-to-interception numbers aren't that bad on the road, which is probably why this split hasn't gotten much buzz. But the per-drop back numbers take a big step back when you take the defense out of Dallas, and there's far less variance involved with that.

We have seen quarterbacks put up decent games against this defense, which is encouraging for Jared Goff. Matthew Stafford had 307 yards and 2 touchdowns in Dallas, Carson Wentz topped 330 passing yards in both of the teams' meetings, and both Jameis Winston and Eli Manning logged 300 passing yards against the defense the final two games of the regular season. Although the Cowboys have talent on defense, the right offenses can still move the ball on them.

The Rams likely fit that bill. They were fourth in Adjusted Passing NEP per play in the regular season and will be the best offense the Cowboys have faced on the road this season. Sean McVay's squad also takes things up a notch when they're playing in The Coliseum.

That absurd home efficiency has allowed Goff to average 25.06 FanDuel points per game at home compared to 13.61 points per game on the road. We've got two units with big home-road splits, and both indicate the Rams should be successful on Saturday.

That's key here because of Goff's salary. He's $1,200 cheaper than Mahomes on the four-game slate, and that much salary can go a long way in helping you splurge for guys like Kelce and Ezekiel Elliott. Goff's not a lock given the Cowboys' desire to play keep-away, but there's a path to a really solid game here.

It's totally understandable if you don't want to be talked into Goff given how appealing both Mahomes and Brees are. You'll need help in trying to afford those two, though. That's where the Rams' pass-catchers can come into play.

For the Rams, the clear turning point in their season occurred when Cooper Kupp was lost with a knee injury in Week 10. That gives us a six-game sample of the team since then with the targets being divided as such.

As you can see, there's reason to like both Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks. Woods has gotten steady overall volume, and Cooks always has slate-busting upside. But in the hunt for value, there's a lot to like in Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett.

Since Kupp's injury, Reynolds leads the Rams in both deep targets and red-zone targets. He hasn't had the same yardage as Woods and Cooks, topping out at 80 yards receiving this year, but he's getting high-leverage targets in a good offense. That's pretty attractive at his salary.

The one big ding on Reynolds is that the Rams changed their philosophy in Week 16, running more two-tight end sets than they had previously. As a result, Reynolds' snap rate fell to 51.5%, easily his lowest since Kupp's injury. It bounced back up to 95.9% in Week 17, but part of that was because Woods and Cooks got a few breathers.

Everett is the big benefactor of this shift in personnel. He played at least 60% of the snaps in both Weeks 16 and 17, the two highest snap rates of his career.

Everett's snap rate had been on the rise prior to this point as he had six or more targets in each game from Week 14 to Week 16. But he and Reynolds do seem to cannibalize each other a bit even though they play different positions.

As a result, you likely shouldn't use the two together in the same lineup. If the Rams go back to their constant usage of three-receiver sets, a dud is pretty likely for Everett. If they run more two-tight end sets, then Reynolds' floor plummets. As long as they're used by themselves, both Reynolds and Everett are salary-saving ways to get access to this offense.

The final potential stacking partner with Goff is Todd Gurley, who missed the final two games of the regular season. He got in limited practices to start the week and appears on track to return. The question is just how much of the load he will handle.

McVay has already said that C.J. Anderson will get work alongside Gurley this weekend, but even before his knee injury, Gurley was still ceding some work to Malcolm Brown. That doesn't necessarily mean Gurley will be limited, even if it is something to note.

Given Gurley's and Anderson's respective styles of play, you'd also have to assume that Gurley would at least get the passing-down work in his return. In the regular season, Gurley played six games without Kupp. In those, Gurley had 17.8% of the Rams' total targets despite getting just three in Week 11 while dealing with an early in-game injury. That's a pretty meaty role, especially for this slate.

If Gurley were to return to his pre-injury workload, he's be a pretty solid bargain at $9,000 on FanDuel. But we also can't know for sure that this will happen. So how should we handle him?

This is the perfect spot to make tournament lineups based around assumptions. If you assume that Gurley hops back into his old workload, he needs to be in your lineup as a 7.5-point home favorite with a high-leverage role in the passing game.

Potentially the way to play this, then, is to assign odds in your head that Gurley plays his old role. If you think it has 20% odds of happening, then Gurley should be in 20% of your tournament lineups and would pair well with Goff. If you're a bit more optimistic and think he has 50% odds of that old role, then you can up your exposure to Gurley quite a bit. Early-season Gurley would have been a great play in this spot. As a result, we need to be willing to take the risk on him in some lineups, even while acknowledging that there are still some red flags here.