Which Quarterback in the 2019 NFL Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?

1. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma

Age: 21 | Games Played: 19 | AY/A: 13.0 | Passing Efficiency Rating: 199.2 | Total QBR: 95.8

Top Statistical Comp: Cam Newton

This is why we needed the qualifier about each player's top comp. Murray's eyes are likely in line with Newton's belly button if you stand them next to each other. But the success of Newton in the NFL does provide some hope for someone with Murray's statistical profile.

From strictly an efficiency perspective, Murray is one of the best NFL draft prospects of all time. He broke records in his one season as Oklahoma's starter, measuring up well even to his old teammate, Baker Mayfield.

This isn't meant to be a jab at Mayfield, either. He graded out as a god in this piece last year and leads all first-round picks since 2000 in all three of those categories above. It's just to show that Murray would pass him if he were to wind up in the first round.

The big concern around Murray's efficiency numbers -- one that will hopefully be more muted due to the success of Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes -- will be that those marks are tainted by his playing in the Big 12. That's not a conference known for its defenses, and you can bet people will cite this in an attempt to downplay how silly Murray was.

To an extent, there is some validity to this. Murray played just five games against teams ranked in the top 50 in Football Outsiders' Passing Defense S&P+, which measures the abilities of opposing pass defenses. This means that Murray had nine games against softer opponents, which can inflate stats a bit.

This argument just loses some of its luster when you see the terror he unleashed upon those top-50 opponents.

I'm not blushing; you're blushing.

This all adds up to a 12.2 AY/A for Murray when you look at only what he did against higher-quality foes. Iowa State, TCU, and Alabama were all in the top 25 in this metric, and Murray still went bananas against them.

Murray -- unlike some of the other names on this list -- is also generally regarded as a first-round pick, which lends extra legitimacy to his numbers. Based on all of this, it seems like teams should be fully willing to pounce on him early, assuming he decides to stick with this over baseball.

But as mentioned in the beginning, no prospect in this class comes without question marks. For Murray, his lack of experience is a major red flag.

Since 2000, only two first-round picks have entered the league with less than 20 games of experience under their belt in college. One was Mitchell Trubisky, who was respectable this year, though he still carries some question marks. The other was Mark Sanchez.

This is where the parallels between Murray and Mayfield come to a screeching halt. Instead of having 19 games with 10 or more pass attempts, Mayfield entered with 48, which ranks third among first-round picks in our sample. Murray would be third on the other end of the spectrum.

So, with Murray, we have to step back and ask: is his lack of experience enough to outweigh the spiciness in his stats?

To get a gauge on this, let's look at other quarterbacks who fell into these same buckets. Specifically, we want to look at quarterbacks who were 21 years old or younger, had fewer than 30 games of experience, and had an AY/A of 8.5 or higher. Here are the four quarterbacks who check all those boxes along with how often they've ranked in various slots in Total NEP.

Keep this list in mind because Dwayne Haskins is going to fall into the exact same category (and his top comp will be Alex Smith). It's a bit of a mixed bag.

Newton is absolutely a success story, and like Murray, he adds to his appeal with what he can do with his legs. Although Newton had 26 games with at least 10 pass attempts if you count his time in junior college, it drops to 14 if you look at just his time at Auburn and Florida. Because he also had disgusting efficiency numbers his final year in college, he's the type of quarterback you hope Murray can become.

Additionally, Sam Darnold had a major surge toward the end of this year, making it look like he'll be a future success story. This isn't a bad list. But there's still some risk here.

Smith's first top-10 season in Total NEP didn't happen until 2017 with the Kansas City Chiefs, and Mahomes showed that Smith still may not have been getting the most out of the players around him. Johnny Manziel was the definition of a bust.

This is why Murray -- even with jaw-dropping collegiate stats -- is not a lock to become a stud. The traits he showed in college should make NFL front offices drool. He's worthy of being a first-round pick. But there is still something left to be desired.

Throughout the draft process, you're likely going to hear questions about Murray's height. At some point, that does become a concern, especially as he transitions to a higher level, but it didn't hold him back in college. Instead, the questions should revolve around his lack of experience. Murray's ceiling in the NFL seems tremendous, and that should be enough to make him a high draft pick, but he's far from a lock to thrive based on his full resume.