DRAFT Daily Fantasy Helper: Week 10
After last week's scoring bonanza, Week 10 initially projects to be slightly lower scoring. As of this moment only three games have an over/under above 51-points. However, this may create a more diverse player pool and allow people to exploit their personal edges in daily fantasy.
DRAFT provides a great way for people to do just that through weekly snake and auction leagues. Here are this week's notable plays on DRAFT.
Matt Ryan - Aside from Patrick Mahomes, the quarterback position appears wide open this week. However, Matt Ryan looks like a solid option for those approaching the position early in drafts. Ryan currently has 2,685 passing yards on the season, with a strong 19:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Boston College product draws a fantastic matchup against the Cleveland Browns this weekend. The Browns have been absolutely decimated by opposing signal callers this season. To date, they have allowed the second-most passing yards (2,694), and at least 26 points against them in each of their last four games.
Injuries have played a major part in the Browns' defensive struggles, and Week 10 looks to be much of the same. With Terrance Mitchell already on injured reserve, the Browns added E.J. Gaines and Christian Kirksey to IR. Denzel Ward also sustained a hip injury and did not practice on Wednesday, making him questionable to face the Atlanta Falcons for the time being.
Ryan also has positive indicators from bookmakers on his side, with the Falcons favored by 4.0-points in the a game with a 50.5-point over/under. Often lasting till the mid-rounds of weekly snake drafts, Ryan should continue his early season dominance.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - For those waiting on quarterback, look no further than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Despite the mid-season benching, Fitzpatrick has exceeded expectations this season. In four full games as the starter, Fitzpatrick has 1,473 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. To further improve Fitzpatrick's fantasy potential, the Buccaneers have scored at least 26 points in seven of eight games.
FitzMagic also finds himself in a solid matchup against a weak Washington Redskins secondary. Over the past four weeks, the Redskins have allowed the second-most passing yards (1,214) and 8 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, including 300-yard games from Matt Ryan and Eli Manning. They also allowed 275 and 273 to Cam Newton and Dak Prescott, respectively.
The Bucs also have the second-highest game total on the slate (51.5 points) and come into this contest favored by 3.0 points. With the league's second-worst pass defense, according to our metrics, the Bucs will likely give up some points as well, keeping this game close.
Falling to the final rounds of drafts, Fitzpatrick anchors lineups and allows drafters to bolster running back and receiver in the early rounds.
Hunt has been on a tear of late, with at least 15 touches and a score in four straight games, including 20 targets in that span. Kansas City ranks first in points per game (36.3) and third in yards per game (433.4) to the benefit of Hunt.
Hunt also comes into the game with arguably the best matchup on the slate against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to backs (1,057) and third-most rushing touchdowns (10) on the year.
The Chiefs come into this game as massive home favorites (16.5 points) with a 50.0 over/under. Game script and home field advantage greatly favor Hunt in this matchup, putting him squarely in play as the number two overall player in weekly snake drafts.
David Johnson - On the other side, David Johnson makes an attractive target at a second/third round draft cost.
Johnson has largely disappointed to start the season, but showed promising usage in one game with Byron Leftwich coordinating the Cardinals. Leftwich creatively schemed Johnson the ball in the passing game, resulting in Johnson tying a season-high in receiving yards (41). Despite playing in one of the league's worst offenses, Johnson continues to see bell-cow volume, with at least 17 touches in his last four games.
Johnson also has a positive matchup in this contest. The Chiefs have actually allowed more production to the running back position than the Cardinals. Kansas City has allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing backfields this season (634), along with the seventh-most on the ground (975). A true three-down back, Johnson recorded 879 receiving yards in 2016 and should be able to exploit the Chiefs' pass game deficiencies.
Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Chiefs rank dead last in run defense. As 16.5-point underdogs, the Cardinals will likely have to throw early and often, which should allow Johnson to pay off his draft cost.
Dion Lewis - With many teams returning from bye, the running back position looks a little deeper and has pushed Dion Lewis to the final rounds of drafts. Lewis experienced a true breakout game on Monday Night Football last week. He played a season-high 84% of the Tennessee Titans' snaps and out-touched Derrick Henry 23-8.
The matchup this week against the New England Patriots also favors Lewis. The Patriots have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to backs (463), and Lewis has operated as the clear passing-down back in this offense. His 37 targets dwarf Henry's 10.
Likewise, bookmakers also believe the game script will favor Lewis, with the Titans pegged at 6.5-point home underdogs. Lewis even emerged as the preferred red zone option, out-touching Henry 6-1 inside the 20-yard line last week.
Clearly the preferred back coming out of the Titans' bye, Lewis remains too cheap as a pick in the final rounds of weekly snake drafts.
Julio Jones - Finally scoring a touchdown, Julio Jones warrants first round consideration and makes a solid stacking partner with Matt Ryan in week-to-week drafts.
Jones has absolutely exploded this season, tied for third in targets (91), second in receiving yards (932), and first in air yards (1,269). However, he remains the only receiver in the top 12 to only have one score.
As noted above, Jones' matchup against Cleveland looks quite enticing this week. To date, the Browns have allowed the second-most yards to receivers (1,648). To make matters worse, Denzel Ward continues to struggle with a hip injury, and if he cannot get the green light, Julio would enter an absolutely massive blow up spot. The Browns are so decimated in their back end that they signed Phillip Gaines off waivers on Wednesday.
The Falcons come into this one with a 27.25 implied team total, so Julio and the Falcons should have no problem scoring. Julio is a solid late first round pick and a no-brainer in the second round.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - Held below 100 yards and without a score for the second straight week, recency bias has caused JuJu's value to plummet to the mid-rounds of snake drafts.
Despite the lack of production, JuJu still has 15 targets over the past two weeks and easily the second-most air yards (136) behind Antonio Brown on the Pittsburgh Steelers. On the season, Smith-Schuster's 78 targets are tied for 12th and his 628 receiving yards rank 17th.
This week, the Steelers will face the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. The Panthers have played adequate pass defense to this point, but JuJu has a particularly attractive matchup from the slot, where he runs 79% of his routes. At 6'1", JuJu has a major size advantage over diminutive slot corner Captain Munnerlyn (5'8", 182 lbs). Munnerlyn recently allowed Adam Humphries and Tyler Boyd to reach 82 and 132 yards, respectively.
Bookmakers also currently peg this as the second-high game total on the slate at 51.5 points, implying 27.50 points for the Steelers and a positive scoring environment for JuJu.
With a 23% target share in the Steelers' offense and a plus matchup, Smith-Schuster remains too cheap in the third/fourth round.
Jarvis Landry - Disappointment in fantasy football cannot be discussed without mentioning Jarvis Landry. As the Browns' number one receiver, Landry has a mere 560 yards on the season and only a pair of scores. However, this lack of production has caused Landry's value to plummet to the final rounds of drafts.
On a positive note, Landry has not seen a shortage of volume this season. He ranks second in the NFL with 97 targets and fifth in air yards (1,017). This makes Landry a solid buy-low as both a touchdown and yardage regression candidate.
Additionally, this matchup against the Falcons may allow Landry to break his recent slump. Landry plays a majority of his snaps from the slot, where the Falcons have been eviscerated by opposing wide receivers. Lately, Maurice Harris, Sterling Shepard, and Adam Humphries all led their respective teams in receiving from the slot against the Falcons. According to our metrics, the Falcons rank 30th in pass defense.
As 4.0-point underdogs at home, the Browns should be throwing this week. With a 28% target share and a 31% air yards share, Landry should be the main beneficiary, and has week-winning upside from the final round of weekly snake drafts.
Matthew Gajewski is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matthew Gajewski also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mgajewski. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.