NFL

3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for the Divisional Round

Matthew Gajewski  —  @Matt_Gajewski Jan 12th, 2019
Drew Brees was a monster at home this year, and he's up against a soft Eagles pass defense. Which other player props should you hammer this weekend?

With season-long leagues in the books, fantasy enthusiasts can stay involved in the NFL action through the FanDuel SportsBook. FanDuel provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.

Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, allowing people to stay involved in a familiar way. With playoff action upon us, here are a few standout player props.

Drew Brees Over 290.5 Passing Yards -108

With a Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck stealing the spotlight this week, Drew Brees has flown under the radar a bit. However, in an awesome matchup, a $100 bet on Brees eclipsing 290.5 passing yards nets $92.59.

Brees finished 2018 playing some of the most efficient football of his career, recording 3,992 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. More importantly, the Philadelphia Eagles have been quite giving to opposing quarterbacks. According to our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Eagles rank 19th in pass defense. However, this unit allowed the second-most passing yards throughout the regular season (4,612) and watched Mitchell Trubisky throw for 303 yards last weekend.

It also should be noted that the New Orleans Saints come with the second-highest implied team total of the weekend (29.50), meaning they should move the ball early and often. When these teams met earlier this season, Brees recorded 363 passing yards and 4 scores en route to a 48-7 victory.

Finally, our projections have Brees pegged for 309.16 passing yards, giving him almost a full 20 yards on his passing prop. With matchup, bookmakers, and our projections on his side, Brees' passing prop looks like a slam dunk this weekend.

Tyreek Hill 80.5 Receiving Yards -108

One of the more dangerous receivers in football, Tyreek Hill finished 2018 with a massive 1,479 receiving yards. For the divisional round, a $100 bet on Hill passing 80.5 receiving yards nets $92.59.

Averaging 92.44 yards per game, Hill enters this game fresh off a 101-yard performance against the Oakland Raiders. This week, he draws a matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks 20th against the pass, per our metrics. The Colts have played well against the pass of late, but Hill has diced up even the best of secondaries this season (Baltimore for 139 yards and the Chargers for 169 yards).

Hill and the Kansas City Chiefs enter this contest with the highest implied team total of the Divisional Round (31.00). At home, the Chiefs have averaged 32.4 points per game, and they should be able to move the ball against Indianapolis.

Looking at our projections, Hill is pegged for 87.66 receiving yards, a full 7 yards above his listed prop. While many player props in this contest have been inflated, Tyreek Hill's remains low, creating an edge to exploit on Saturday. One thing to watch for, however, is the weather. Snow is expected in Kansas City on Saturday, and heavy snow during the game would be a negative for both offenses.

Andrew Luck Over 305.5 Passing Yards -108

While Andrew Luck did not come through last week, largely due to game script in the Colts' blowout win, he looks like a solid bounce-back candidate against the Chiefs. A $100 bet on Luck besting 305.5 passing yards nets $92.59.

Returning from injury this year, Luck posted 4,593 passing yards and 39 scores in 2018. Along with the prolific nature of the Indianapolis offense, the Colts' draw a nice matchup against a subpar Chiefs secondary. While this unit ranks 18th in pass defense, per our metrics, they allowed the most passing yards to opposing passers in the regular season (4,721) as teams tried to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and company.

With Indy a 5.0-point underdog, game script projects to swing toward Luck and the passing game. With a 57.0-point game total, the Colts still have the fourth-highest team total of the weekend (26.00). Also working in the Colts' favor, the Chiefs allow the second-most plays to opposing offenses, giving Luck additional opportunities to throw in negative game script.

Crunching the numbers, our projections have Luck slated for 316.82 passing yards, which gives him slightly more than 11 yards of value on his player prop. In what projects to be the highest-scoring affair so far in these playoffs, Andrew Luck's passing prop should be targeted until it moves up. As with Hill, though, check the weather forecast before locking this in.