5 Prop Bets to Target for Super Bowl LIII
With the Super Bowl finally here, prop bet season has reached its peak. Unlike any other football game, Super Bowl props range from the normal player props, all the way to the near-unpredictable color Gatorade used to shower the winning coach. With much of the attention focused on the spread, an edge can be found by targeting specific player props, along with the occasional gag prop. Here is a look at the Super Bowl's strongest bets on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Brandin Cooks Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Fresh off a 107-yard performance, a $100 bet on Brandin Cooks falling short of 72.5 receiving yards nets $84.75. Cooks has eclipsed this mark in 9 of 19 games this season (47%) but only once in his last 7 games (14%). Very familiar with Cooks as a former Patriot, New England has the personnel to shut down Cooks. All of Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, and J.C. Jackson ran at least a 4.46 40-yard dash and can keep up with the speedy Cooks. Against a similar player in Tyreek Hill in the AFC Championship game, the Patriots only allowed 1 catch for 42 yards. With a 13.04 average depth of target (aDOT), Cooks doesn't not fit the receiver archetype to dink and dunk his way to 72.5 yards on multiple catches. According to our projections, Cooks is slated for 62.05 receiving yards on 4.69 catches. With the Patriots' secondary playing well of late, a bet on Cooks failing to reach 72.5 yards remains in play.
Jared Goff Under 283.5 Passing Yards (-118)
After a hot start to 2018, Jared Goff eclipsed 283.5 passing yards just three times in his last eight games. However, a 297-yard performance last week allowed his player prop to climb all the way to 283.5. A $100 bet on the under nets $84.75 in this spot. Numerous factors work against Goff in this spot, including a surging New England secondary. Two weeks ago, the Patriots' secondary held the formidable Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to 249 yards passing. The Patriots have been able to do this by generating immense pressure throughout the playoffs. Both Philip Rivers and Mahomes were the most pressured passers in their respective round of the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Rams, Goff's 59.8 Passer Rating under pressure ranked 28th in the NFL. Struggling of late and playing against a fierce opponent, a bet on Jared Goff falling short of 283.5 passing yards looks like a solid bet.
Cordarrelle Patterson Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Getting slightly more favorable odds here, a $100 bet on Cordarrelle Patterson missing 14.5 receiving yards nets $92.59. First of all, Patterson has only eclipsed 14.5 receiving yards in 6 of 17 games this season (35%). Throughout 2018, Patterson has averaged 1.35 catches per game, while playing 21% of the Patriots' snaps. In recent weeks, these figures have been even lower, with Patterson notching 13% and 31% of the Patriots' postseason snaps. To make matters worse, Patterson only has five games above two targets all season. Playing against the league's 10th-best pass defense, according to our metrics, the under on Patterson's receiving prop bet remains a strong play.
Defensive Player to Win Super Bowl MVP (+1600)
While an unlikely occurrence, a $100 bet on a defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP nets $1,600. This particular bet falls in the Position of MVP Match Bet section on the FanDuel Sportsbook. On the other side, the field comes in -3500.
Looking back to the year 2000, a defensive player has won the Super Bowl MVP just 3 times in 19 Super Bowls (16%), but a few factors point towards this distinct possibility. First of all, 54% of the betting tickets have targeted the over, but the total has actually fallen from 58.5-points to 56.5-points. This indicates either sharp money or a leaning from bookmakers toward the under.
Our metrics also point to a potentially low scoring game. Both the Rams' and the Patriots' defenses rank in the top half of our schedule adjusted power rankings. Last week, both the Patriots and the Rams held the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints to a lowly 290 total yards, respectively. With each defense playing at an elite level, it makes sense to lay a smaller bet on a defensive player winning the Super Bowl MVP at such favorable odds.
Over 4.5 Rams' Players to Carry the Ball (-105)
This may seem like a far-fetched gamble, but the Rams actually rush their wide receivers at one of the highest rates in the NFL. A $100 bet on more than 4.5 Rams rushing the ball nets $95.24.
Throughout 2018, at least two different receivers handled carries in 10 of 19 total games for the Rams (53%). With C.J. Anderson splitting time with Todd Gurley, and Jared Goff recording at least one rushing attempt in every game this season, three players look like locks to record rushing attempts. From there, Sean McVay's tendencies throughout the season suggest that two receivers handling rushing attempts remains the most likely outcome. This does not include any possible trick plays on offense or special teams, where another player could potentially carry the ball. With almost even odds, the over on 4.5 Rams players to carry the ball looks like a gamble worth taking.