3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for Week 1
With the NFL regular season finally here, fantasy enthusiasts can stay involved in the NFL action through the FanDuel SportsBook. FanDuel provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, allowing people to stay involved in a familiar way. With Week 1 already underway, here are a few standout prop bets for Sunday's action in Week 1.
Lamar Jackson Over 181.5 Passing Yards -112
With the entire NFL community still adjusting to Lamar Jackson's playing style, FanDuel Sportsbook pegs Jackson's passing yardage totals egregiously low. Looking strictly at our player projections, Jackson projects to record 241.48 passing yards in Week 1. Projected to throw for 50 yards more than his player prop, Jackson looks like a top value on Sunday.
Taking a look at Baltimore's Week 1 matchup, Jackson will face off against a tanking Miami Dolphins team. Looking at our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Dolphins enter Week 1 with the second-worst pass defense and the worst defense overall. This should allow Jackson to dice up this Miami team at will. Importantly, Baltimore enters this game favored by 6.5 points, indicating the Ravens should find success moving the ball.
Looking at Jackson as a passer, he never attempted more than 29 passes in any single game with the Ravens last year. In fact, once Jackson took over the offense, the Ravens morphed into the run-heaviest team in the NFL. By all accounts, Jackson has improved as a passer this offseason, and the Ravens invested multiple assets into skill-position players to help Jackson, taking Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, and Justice Hill in the top four rounds of the NFL Draft, while adding Mark Ingram in free agency.
Ultimately, a $100 bet on Jackson eclipsing 181.5 passing yards nets $89.29 this weekend. With one of the seasons easiest matc-ups to start the year and a projected 50 yards of value, Jackson looks like a lock in Week 1.
Nick Chubb Over 84.5 Rushing Yards -112
In a preseason trade with the Houston Texans, the Cleveland Browns shipped off Duke Johnson for a mid-round pick. With Kareem Hunt suspended until Week 10, Nick Chubb sits as the lone running back in Cleveland. For Week 1, FanDuel Sportsbook has put Chubb's rushing yards prop at 84.5 yards, but our models give the over a slight edge here, with Chubb projected to rush for 88.54 yards.
Looking at Chubb's matchup, the Titans field a bottom-12 rush defense, according to our metrics. Last year, they allowed the 13th-most rushing yards to opposing backs. Importantly for Chubb, the Browns enter this contest favored by 5.5 points, indicating that game script should favor additional rushing attempts for their stud back.
Last year, Chubb averaged 17.7 carries per game after taking over as the starter mid-season. Johnson now leaves behind an additional 40 touches for the season for Chubb to soak up in this offense. As a rusher, Chubb also showed great efficiency as a rookie, notching 996 yards on only 192 carries.
With a positive projected matchup in Week 1, Chubb has a solid shot at eclipsing his prop of 84.5 rushing yards. As it stands, a $100 bet on Chubb nets $89.29 in this spot.
Tyler Lockett Under 78.5 Receiving Yards -118
With Doug Baldwin retiring this offseason Tyler Lockett finds himself as the de facto number-one receiving option in Seattle. However, facing an anemic Cincinnati Bengals team this week, Lockett looks like a long shot to reach his 78.5 receiving yardage prop.
According to our projections, Lockett is slated for just 67.17 receiving yards in Week 1, giving him 10 yards of value on this prop bet. According to our models, Cincinnati projects to play poor defense across the board, but they come in slightly worse against the run. This works in favor of Seattle's run game after the Seahawks finished as the run-heaviest team in the NFL last season.
With Seattle favored by 9.5-points, the Seahawks simply may not need to use Lockett -- or the pass -- much to achieve a win. With projected game script and volume working against Lockett in this spot, taking a stab on the under on his receiving yardage prop looks like the optimal move. A $100 bet in this spot nets $84.75.
