Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 4
Matchweek 4 provides teams a chance to gain some positive momentum heading into next week's international break.
Using Top Bet as the source for lines, let's take a look at some bets you should zero in on this week.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from topbet, and you can check here to see their most updated lines.
Leicester vs Liverpool
Mo Salah to Score (-140 via Bovada)
During his phenomenal 2017-18 season, Mo Salah scored in 23 out of his 34 starts (68%) in EPL matches, and he has continued that scoring prowess early this season, netting a goal in two out of his first three matches.
The matchup against Leicester bodes well for Salah and Liverpool, as there were only four EPL teams who conceded more goals last year than Leicester did. Salah’s prolific goal-scoring ability matched up with Leicester’s poor defense is a recipe for at least one goal for the Egyptian striker this weekend.
Obviously, make sure he is in the starting lineup on Saturday, but assuming he is, Salah to score is a good bet.
West Ham vs Wolves
Over 2.5 goals scored
Last season, 22 of West Ham’s 38 games (57.9%) finished with over 2.5 goals scored, and this season has been no different. Albeit in a small sample size, all three of West Ham’s games have finished with at least three total goals. The Hammers conceded more goals last season than any other team in the league, and they are once again tied for the league lead in most goals conceded this campaign, so any game involving Manuel Pellegrini’s side has a chance to be a goal-fest.
Wolverhampton gained promotion last season, so it is difficult to take too much stock in their stats from last season. However, they did lead the Championship in goals scored last year, so their offensive quality could match up well against West Ham’s defensive inadequacy. Only one of Wolves' three games this season have finished with over two total goals, but 24 of their 46 games (52.1%) last season ended with three or more goals.
Based on the matchup and trends from last season, it seems more likely than not that there will be more than 2.5 goals scored in this game.
Crystal Palace vs Southampton
Southampton +0.5
Even in an overall dreadful 2017-18 campaign that saw Southampton nearly face relegation, the Saints were able to muster up 11 results (wins or draws) in 19 away games (57.89%). On the flip side, Palace won only 7 out of their 19 home games last year (36.84%). Given that, Southampton at +0.5 goals seems very generous from the sportsbooks.
In terms of this season, Crystal Palace are currently two points ahead of the Saints in the table, but Southampton has averaged 5.3 more shots per game while also conceding 2.4 less shots than Palace has so far this year. So, while Southampton has not found as much success in terms of results, perhaps their luck is due for a change based on their superior shooting numbers. All in all, betting on the Saints to take at least one point from this game makes a lot of sense.
