League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC, Saturday 3/21/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Saturday, March 21st and see who stands out.
The Slate
Per usual, it's a five-game slate, and here is how each team matches up. The table is sorted by differential in Kill:Death ratio, which correlates very strongly to win rate. Other stats listed include gold spend differential (GSD), first baron rate (FBN%), and jungle control (JNG%) as well as each team's opponent mark in the category. These all are tied closely to win rate.
| Team | Opp. | K:D | Opp. K:D |
K:D Diff |
GSD | Opp. GSD |
FBN% | Opp FBN% |
JNG% | Opp JNG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Origen | SKG | 1.48 | 0.48 | 1.00 | 4.8% | -6.6% | 69.0% | 25.0% | 50.7% | 45.1% |
| G2 Esports | ES | 1.42 | 0.83 | 0.59 | 3.8% | 0.8% | 64.0% | 57.0% | 54.8% | 48.2% |
| Misfits | ML | 1.36 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 3.0% | -0.9% | 62.0% | 57.0% | 52.2% | 52.0% |
| Schalke 04 | VIT | 0.80 | 0.52 | 0.28 | -6.4% | -8.4% | 33.0% | 8.0% | 47.3% | 45.5% |
| Rogue | FTC | 1.40 | 1.29 | 0.11 | 3.8% | 6.2% | 57.0% | 62.0% | 51.2% | 53.0% |
| Fnatic | ROG | 1.29 | 1.40 | -0.11 | 6.2% | 3.8% | 62.0% | 57.0% | 53.0% | 51.2% |
| Vitality | FSC | 0.52 | 0.80 | -0.28 | -8.4% | -6.4% | 8.0% | 33.0% | 45.5% | 47.3% |
| MAD Lions | MG | 1.00 | 1.36 | -0.36 | -0.9% | 3.0% | 57.0% | 62.0% | 52.0% | 52.2% |
| Excel Esports | G2 | 0.83 | 1.42 | -0.59 | 0.8% | 3.8% | 57.0% | 64.0% | 48.2% | 54.8% |
| SK Gaming | OG | 0.48 | 1.48 | -1.00 | -6.6% | 4.8% | 25.0% | 69.0% | 45.1% | 50.7% |
ADC Picks
Caps, G2Esports ($9,900) - Via OraclesElixir, Caps ranks fourth among ADCs in kill/death/assist ratio (KDA) at 6.2 and is part of an elite G2 Esports team that draws a matchup with Excel Esports, who are just seventh among 10 LEC teams in FanDuel points allowed to opposing ADCs. Caps' price is just too good to ignore entirely even at high ownership.
Innaxe, Schalke 04 ($10,000) - You don't want to blow your ADC pick, so I can't fault you for just playing it safer with Rekkles ($10,600) or Upset ($10,300), but Schalke has a promising matchup with Vitality, who are at the bottom of the LEC. Vitality are eighth against opposing ADCs, and we can probably get Innaxe at ownership leverage point over the more popular ADCs. Innaxe is second in damage per minute in this split, and the cake matchup should pay dividends.
Others to Consider: Rekkles ($10,600), Upset ($10,300), Comp ($9,400)
Mid-Lane Picks
Perkz, G2 Esports ($9,000) - I was all over G2 Esports yesterday, and I'm unapologetically going back there for the Saturday slate. Perkz leads all mid-laners in damage per minute and is second in KDA. Perkz draws the absolute top matchup possible for mid-laners against Excel Esports. We can play and stack G2 and still differentiate in other ways.
Abbedagge, Schalke 04 ($8,300) - Sticking with Schalke, who face Vitality's ninth-ranked mid-lane defense, we have Abbedagge. Similar to Innaxe, Abbedagge ranks second at his position in damage per minute and should be able to convert that into kills against the lowly Vitality squad.
Others to Consider: Febiven ($9,000), Nukeduck ($8,600), Selfie ($8,000)
Top-Lane Picks
Wunder, G2 Esports ($8,700) - Yeah, I don't care anymore. I'm not hiding the G2 love. Wunder just grades out very well in this matchup with Excel. He already leads the split in FanDuel points per game among top laners despite a low creep score per minute rate. The champion damage has led to kills and assists.
Dan Dan, Misfits ($8,800) - Dan Dan will face MAD Lions, who rolled over SK Gaming on Friday. Misfits will pose a tougher matchup, so we can turn to Dan Dan against the eighth-ranked top-lane defense. Dan Dan is second in creep score per minute and could experience a top-lane advantage over Orome, who posts the worst creep score differential at 10 minutes.
Others to Consider: Alphari ($9,300), Bwipo ($8,400), Odoamne ($8,200)
Jungle Picks
Jankos, G2 Esports ($8,900) - Jakos had 108 assists entering Friday's slate, 13 more than any other jungler, and his 61 kills were 19 more than any other jungler. That's had to hate. You don't want to get carried away with too many G2 players on the same team, but stacking is a sound strategy, especially when teams win. G2 should do that.
Razork, Misfits ($8,500) - Despite a high death rate, Razork grades out as a solid fantasy performer due to his kills. Misfits are third in jungle control. Their opponent -- MAD Lions -- are fourth, but Razork's involvement as given him a high floor all season.
Others to Consider: Xerxe ($9,000) Inspired ($8,700), Selfmade ($8,600)
Support Picks
Destiny, Origen ($7,200) - Mikyx ($7,400) scores a ton of fantasy points himself, but I figured I'd table the G2 angle at least once. Stacking Destiny with Upset is a strong play for Saturday, as SK Gaming allow the most points to opposing supports. It's hard to spend up for supports, but in the right build, it's a high-upside play.
Dreams, Schalke 04 ($6,900) - Dreams is salary relief if we're going to be okay stacking Schalke against Vitality. Dreams is just seventh in KDA among supports, yet he is third in assists. He's in play in a stack with Abbedagge.
Others to Consider: Mikyx ($7,400), Tore ($7,000), Denyk ($7,500)
Team Picks
We can get as chalky as possible when filling out our team picks. It depends on how much salary we have left. You can basically pick in the order teams are listed in the matchup table at the top of the article, which again is sorted by differential in K:D.
The favored plays should be G2 Esports ($8,000), Fnatic ($7,900), and Origen ($7,900), but a cheaper pick is Schalke 04 ($7,000) against Vitality. Schalke isn't a good squad, but their matchup with Vitality goes a long way toward suggesting this is a value spot. They're very likely to get first baron, and that could be all the difference for a cheap price.
