League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC, Friday 3/27/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Friday, March 27th and see who stands out.
Per usual, it's a five-game slate, and here is how each team matches up. The table is sorted by differential in Kill:Death ratio, which correlates very strongly to win rate. Other stats listed include gold spend differential (GSD), first baron rate (FBN%), and jungle control (JNG%) as well as each team's opponent mark in the category. These all are tied closely to win rate.
There are plenty of playoff implications this weekend, as the top six teams advance to the Spring Split playoff in a -- let's call it unique -- format. G2 Esports (13-3), Fnatic (12-4), Origen (12-4), MAD Lions (10-6), Misfits (9-7), and Rogue (9-7) are currently the top six, and Excel Esports (7-9) are the only other team who could possibly sneak in, though they face Origen to start the week.
More importantly, the top seed gets to pick which of the 3 and 4 seed they face in the best-of-five format. G2 Esports has incentive to play the weekend tough. Same goes for Fnatic and Origen. Even though a likely meeting with G2 looms, MAD Lions, Misfits, and Rogue all benefit from a top-four seed, which guarantees they'll surpass the 5 versus 6 matchup, the loser of which is eliminated. Put another way, each of the top 4 seeds is guaranteed to advance past the first week of the playoffs.
So, with that in mind, who stands out on FanDuel for Week 9 of the LEC?
Caps, G2 Esports ($10,300) - Caps' price went up $400 from the opening weekend on FanDuel, and he and G2 Esports have a chance to dominate yet again against Schalke, who allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing ADCs. Caps has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in 75% of his games this year, easily the highest rate of any ADC in the 2020 Spring Split in the LEC. Even at the salary, his value is too good compared to the other top-tier ADCs. He leads the split in champion damage per minute and could rack up kills on Friday.
Hans sama, Rogue ($9,400) - You want to make sure you maximize your ADC's fantasy output, so take this with a grain of salt. But if you go ADC in your star slot, Hans sama's lower salary makes him a viable secondary ADC pick. Rogue face SK Gaming, the most generous matchup there is in the LEC to opposing ADCs. Hans sama has a bot-lane advantage over Crownshot in terms of experience differential at 10 minutes.
Others to Consider: Rekkles ($10,400), Upset ($10,100), Bvoy ($9,700)
Perkz, G2 Esports ($9,300) - Perkz is just such a stud that it's hard to talk about mid-lane picks and merely list him as another option to consider. He had hit 30 FanDuel points in 69% of his matches, and only one other mid-laner has done that in more than half of his games (Humanoid ($8,400) at 56%). Schalke rank seventh against mid-laners, and Perkz' in-lane matchup with Abbedagge could get pretty intense. Abbedagge is second in deaths in the 2020 Spring Split among mid-laners but does lead in champion damage done. This ought to be a fun lane.
Febiven, Misfits ($8,500) - Febiven is the last viable mid-lane pick in salary before a drop off to options we should avoid. Misfits draw Vitality, who are the weakest mid-lane defense and just the worst overall team in the split. Saken owns the worst experience differential at 10 minutes in the split among mid-laners, so Febiven should gain the upperhand early.
Others to Consider: Nukeduck ($8,500), Larssen ($8,700), Nemesis ($8,800)
Alphari, Origen ($8,900) - Alphari should bully the top lane matchup with Expect from Excel Esports. Expect is negative in gold differential, experience differential, and creep score differential at 10 minutes. Alphari is first, second, and first, respectively, in those stats. Alphari's team, Origen, are huge favorites in this match, so there's some concern of a full steamroll early, but there's pretty much no way Alphari doesn't dominate on Friday.
Bwipo, Fnatic ($8,700) - Bwipo also has a strong lane advantage over Orome of MAD Lions. Orome is ninth in gold differential, seventh in experience differential, and last in creep score differential at 10 minutes among starting top-laners in the LEC. Bwipo is sixth, first, and fifth. Wunder ($9,000) and Alphari could earn quick wins in their matchups, but Fnatic/MAD Lions could be a bit closer.
Others to Consider: Wunder ($9,000), Dan Dan ($8,800), Finn ($8,300)
Jankos, G2 Esports ($9,100) - Jankos' jungle domination makes him worth the elevated salary here. He averages 10 more points per game than any other jungler in the LEC this split, and he has topped 30 FanDuel points 63% of the time. No other jungler is even at 36%. When factoring in opportunity cost, Jankos may be the most vital DFS play in the LEC right now.
Inspired, Rogue ($8,400) - All things considered, Inspired isn't too far off the pace of the non-Jankos junglers in the LEC from a fantasy standpoint. What helps for this slate is a matchup with SK Gaming, who are the softest defense against junglers and are last in jungle control. Inspired is fourth in KDA among junglers, too.
Others to Consider: Xerxe ($8,900), Razork ($8,200)
Denyk, Misfits ($7,300) - I'm going to start this by noting that Mikyx's ($8,000) ceiling is pretty much untouchable by any other support player, and his floor has been high enough to pay the price if you can get there. He's hard to spend up for, so why not bump down at support? Denyk's squad, Misfits, face Vitality, who are eighth against opposing supports, and he himself is fourth in individual KDA among supports. Misfits will need to take care of Vitality, so we should be able to expect big things.
VandeR, Rogue ($7,200) - VandeR and Hans sama are a value stack that can get you some upside provided they take care of SK Gaming in the slate's opening match. VandeR is fifth among supports in KDA and first in experience differential at 10 minutes. He and Hans sama could carve out an edge on LIMIT and Crownshot in the bottom lane.
Others to Consider: Mikyx ($8,000), Destiny ($7,600), Hylissang ($7,500)
We can get as chalky as possible when filling out our team picks unless we're seeking ownership leverage. It depends on how much salary we have left. You can basically pick in the order teams are listed in the matchup table at the top of the article, which again is sorted by differential in K:D. G2 Esports ($7,900), Origen ($7,800), and Fnatic ($7,600) should be preferred pieces.
A $100 savings from Fnatic isn't enough to build around Rogue ($7,500), but the four teams below Rogue are significant underdogs. Rogue owns the second-best K:D differential on the slate, and Vitality's all-around weaknesses should lead to a Rogue win.