League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC, Saturday 3/28/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Saturday, March 28th and see who stands out.
Per usual, it's a five-game slate, and here is how each team matches up. The table is sorted by differential in Kill:Death ratio, which correlates very strongly to win rate. Other stats listed include gold spend differential (GSD), first baron rate (FBN%), and jungle control (JNG%) as well as each team's opponent mark in the category. These all are tied closely to win rate. All stats are from Oracle's Elixir.
Update: After Friday's slate, there are plenty of playoff implications this weekend. The top six teams advance to the Spring Split playoff in a -- let's call it unique -- format.
G2 Esports (14-3) took care of Schalke 04 (5-12) and clinched the 1 seed in the playoffs.
Fnatic (13-4) and Origen (13-4) each won on Friday. At stake for them is the 2 seed and a likely matchup with one another in the first round of the playoffs, as G2 would be free to pick the 3 or 4 seed for their first-round matchup.
In play for that are Misfits (10-7), MAD Lions (10-7), and Rogue (9-8). MAD Lions lost to Fnatic, and Rogue were upset by SK Gaming (3-14). Misfits beat cellar-dwelling Vitality (1-16).
Again, the top seed, G2 Esports, gets to pick which of the 3 and 4 seed they face in a best-of-five format to open the playoff weekend. G2 Esports has no incentive to play tough, so keep an eye out on that situation. As for Fnatic and Origen, they can't escape the 2 or 3 and are all but guaranteed to face one another in the first round (the only way they don't is if G2 picks one of them for their opening matchup).
MAD Lions, Misfits, and Rogue are all in the playoffs. The question becomes which team nets the 4 seed and faces G2 in the opening round. That's still a better outcome than the 5 or 6 seed because the loser of that is ousted. Even a loss to G2 in Week 1 of the playoffs gets the 4 seed to Week 2's loser's bracket.
So, with that in mind, who stands out on FanDuel for Week 9's final slate of games in the LEC?
Rekkles, Fnatic ($10,400) - Paying top dollar for Rekkles can make it tough to round out a balanced roster, but it's definitely not impossible, and Fnatic face Vitality, the LEC's worst team. In their first matchup against Vitality, Rekkles went 2/2/10 (kills/deaths/assists) and finished fourth in the game in FanDuel points (32.4). Entering the weekend, he had led the match in fantasy points 8 times in 16 games. We can be a little afraid of the true ceiling if and (likely) when Fnatic romp over Vitality, but the floor is very high. [Update: Fnatic are effectively locked into a first-round matchup with Origen.]
Patrik, Excel Esports ($9,600) - Patrik is a step down from Rekkles, Caps ($10,300), and Upset ($10,100), but the price helps. Patrik squares up with SK Gaming, who are the most generous team in the split to opposing ADCs, and Patrik is actually second -- behind Rekkles -- in experience differential at 10 minutes, via Oracle's Elixir. He's primed for a bottom-lane edge over Crownshot and LIMIT.
Update: Fnatic can't move in a meaningful way, and Excel are eliminated. As for ADCs with real stakes on the line, we have Hans sama ($9,400) from Rogue, Bvoy ($9,700) from Misfits, , and Carzzy ($9,900) from MAD Lions. I have them projected in that order in terms of FanDuel points when accounting for matchup.
Others to Consider: Caps ($10,300), Upset ($10,100)
Nemesis, Fnatic ($8,800) - I'm not knocking Perkz ($9,300) at all, but any time we can spend down a bit, we should take note. Perkz and G2 Esports have a middling matchup in mid-lane, yet Nemesis' team is up against Vitality, who give up a ton of fantasy points in mid-lane (more than any other team). Nemesis is fourth in the split in KDA, though eighth in actual kills and second in assists. Vitality just doesn't have an answer in mid-lane: Saken is last in experience differential at 10 minutes among starting mid-laners. [Update: Fnatic are effectively locked into a first-round matchup with Origen.]
Larssen, Rogue ($8,700) - Larssen will have his hands full with Abbedagge in mid-lane for Schalke 04. That matchup pits the two leaders in experience differential at 10 minutes against one another, though Larssen does lead the split there. They're both top-two in creep score per minute, as well, though Larssen is second. Still, overall, Larssen is a leverage play who could pop off at low ownership. He and Abbedagge have big ceilings against one another.
Update: Larssen's squad as well as Humanoid's ($8,700) MAD Lions and Febiven's ($8,500) Misfits have playoff seeding to monitor. Humanoid and Febiven face top-three opponents in the mid-lane, however.
Others to Consider: Perkz ($9,300), Abbedagge ($9,000), Mickey ($8,200)
Alphari, Origen ($8,900) - With Wunder facing a top-two top-lane defense in Misfits against Dan Dan ($8,800), we can pop down to Alphari with good comfort against MAD Lions. Alphari's 4.7 KDA is 0.8 higher than any other top-laner's in the split, and he's easily first in gold differential at 10 minutes in the lane. The matchup advantage over Wunder has him projected a little higher for me on Saturday. [Update: Origen are effectively locked into a first-round matchup with Fnatic.]
Bwipo, Fnatic ($8,700) - Bwipo actually could find himself down in gold against Cabochard and Vitality in the early game, but Cabochard has racked up only 21 kills over 16 matches. In all, Vitality rank ninth against opposing top-laners, and we're getting Bwipo at a fine salary. He went 4/2/8 for 34.1 FanDuel points against Vitality in their first match, a 29.5-minute win. [Update: Fnatic are effectively locked into a first-round matchup with Origen.]
Update: Dan Dan ($8,800) should get bumped up even against G2, as Misfits are in play for the 4 seed. G2 rank 5th against opposing top-laners. Finn ($8,300; Rogue) gets Schalke 04, who are sixth against top-laners, and Orome ($8,400; MAD Lions) gets Origen, who are first. My projections rank them Dan Dan, Finn, Orome.
Others to Consider: Wunder ($9,000), Expect ($8,200)
Selfmade, Fnatic ($8,500) - We've got some stud jungle picks for Saturday, namely Jankos ($9,100) from G2 Esports. Misfits, though, are second against junglers, as Razork has a top-four jungle control rate. So we should still be prepped to get some Jankos, but we don't have to force him in, due to the matchup. Selfmade is yet another Fnatic pick against Vitality, who are eighth against junglers in FanDuel points per game. Vitality are also ninth in jungle control rate. Selfmade rates out third in KDA among junglers, giving him a big advantage over Skeanz. [Update: Fnatic are effectively locked into a first-round matchup with Origen.]
Caedrel, Excel Esports ($8,300) - You don't want to whiff on your jungle picks, so it's always risky spending down here, but Caedrel's path to fantasy points are pretty open. He's second behind only Jankos in both creep score per minute and champion damage per minute dealt. SK Gaming are the most generous team to opposing junglers based on fantasy points and are last in jungle control. He's a value play who helps us spend up at ADC and mid lane -- or if we want to get weird and plug Jankos into the STAR slot.
Update: Razork ($8,200) and Inspired ($9,400) project fairly similarly against one another among the three teams ranked fourth through sixth. Shad0w ($8,700) is the best fantasy performer of the trio but faces Origen, who have been the toughest team against junglers. We'll have to keep an eye on Origen's lineup.
Others to Consider: Jankos ($9,100), Xerxe ($8,900)
Hylissang, Fnatic ($7,500) - Look, I mean, Fnatic are all but guaranteed to beat Vitality, and that matters because winning teams score more FanDuel points than losing teams in League of Legends. Supports don't always rack up tons of points. But if we're going to target Fnatic, particularly Rekkles, we should be looking to Hylissang at support for a reasonable salary. Jactroll and Hylissang actually are bottom of the barrel in wards cleared per minute and below average in wards placed per minute. [Update: Fnatic are effectively locked into a first-round matchup with Origen.]
Tore, Excel Esports ($6,800) - Tore got blown up last weekend, netting zero kills, 7 assists, and 12 deaths. Supports shouldn't get kills, but Excel Esports should be more competitive against SK Gaming than they were last week against Fnatic and G2 Esports. Just a hunch there. Tore is actually tied with Kaiser for the second-most matches of at least 30 FanDuel points (18.8% of their matches; Mikyx ($8,000) has done it 56.3% of the time because...G2 Esports). Either way, Tore is a high-risk play but is super cheap, stacks well with Patrik, and can let us do just about anything else we want in our lineups.
Update: VandeR ($7,200) from Rogue and Denyk ($7,300) from Misfits have above-average support matchups each and rate out slightly better than the more expensive Kaiser ($7,700) against Origen, who put the clamps on supports this split. All are in play, ranked in that order for me.
We can get as chalky as possible when filling out our team picks unless we're seeking ownership leverage. It depends on how much salary we have left. You can basically pick in the order teams are listed in the matchup table at the top of the article, which again is sorted by differential in K:D.
Fnatic ($7,600) should be the top priority, and at just $7,600, it's really hard to bump off of them. Vitality give up the most FanDuel points to opposing teams -- and it's not close at all. A cheaper option is Excel Esports ($7,200) against SK Gaming, who are also a bit of a pushover and own the worst K:D in the entire split (0.46). Excel Esports is third-worst (0.75), but sometimes $400 of savings is absolutely vital to round out a stellar roster elsewhere.
Update: I can't fault you for going hard at the three teams with bigger playoff implications, particularly Rogue ($7,500) against Schalke 04. Rogue had a big letdown match on Friday and will undoubtedly be looking to right the ship before the playoffs begin.