Daily Fantasy Golf: Tournament Targets and Avoids for the 3M Open
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week, but the volatility -- top-tier golfers can miss the cut, and longshots can win outright -- makes it a unique daily fantasy sport.
Ownership won't always matter, and favorites will win and thrive some weeks, but when the chalk struggles and the pivots hit big, you can put yourself in a great position to succeed when playing large tournaments on FanDuel.
Whether you're brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered -- and we have daily fantasy golf projections and lineup building tools, too.
Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week in GPP tournaments on FanDuel.
|Key Stats for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities|
|Strokes Gained: Tee to Green|
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Birdies or Better Gained|
|Par 4s Gained: 450-500 yards|
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open, and with this being a new stop in the rotation, the precise key stats needed to succeed have not been narrowed down.
TPC Twin Cities, which is an Arnold Palmer design, has hosted a Champions Tour event since 1993 and, with the help of Tom Lehman, has been lengthened and par adjusted to try and offer a challenge to the PGA pros. While this is a new course on the rotation, the level of difficulty may not be present (especially with storms in the forecast) and golfers will likely need to shoot 18 or 20 under par in order to win, as we saw last week in Detroit, which brings birdies or better and opportunities gained into play as a key stat while strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: tee to green and par 4s gained: 450-500 yards round out the remainder of the key stats.
Stats cited below come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
High-Priced Tier ($12,600 - $10,000)
Target: Hideki Matsuyama (FanDuel Salary $11,500) - Finishing within the top-35 in 13 straight appearances, including four top-10s, Matsuyama will likely come in as one of the top-owned golfers on the slate and could come in at over 30% ownership. Over the last 50 rounds, Matsuyama ranks inside the top-five in four of the five key stats while ranking 10th in par 4s gained: 450-500 yards. Over the last 24 rounds, he is inside the top-10 in five of the six key stats while he drops to 46th in par 4s gained: 450-500 yards. While the ownership at this level is always concerning, Matsuyama's form warrants an overweight performance.
Target: Jason Day ($11,400) - Day has finished inside the top-25 in 19 of his last 22 tournaments while missing the cut in his other three appearances, finishing inside the top-10 six times over that span, and he is projected to come in at sub 13% ownership, per FantasyNational. Over his last 50 rounds, Day ranks inside the top-25 in only two of the five key stats, with a highlight of second in birdies or better, and he ranks between 42nd and 64th in the other three key stats. While his stats don't greatly improve over the last 24 rounds, Day is within the top-51 in all five key stats, and he ranks inside the top-12 in strokes gained: tee to green and birdies or better. Projected as one of the lowest-owned golfers in this tier, DFS players could gain a huge advantage on the field by doubling Day's ownership as the 18th-ranked golfer in the world has proven over the last 22 tournaments that he is able to compete in any type of field.
Avoid: Patrick Reed ($10,700) - As mentioned in last week's article, Reed was listed as a target due to his ownership projection -- which came in at 8.26% -- and recent form that has been improving, and after a fifth-place finish in Detroit, Reed's ownership is projected to come in at above 18%. Over the last 50 rounds, Reed ranks outside the top-20 in all key stats while ranking outside the top-60 in three of the five key stats. Over his last 24 rounds, Reed's ranks do improve as he ranks inside the top-50 in four of the five key stats, sitting 19th in strokes gained: tee to green, but he falls to 92nd in par 4s gained: 450-500 yards. Projected at sub 10% ownership at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit, Reed seemed like an obvious play to try to gain leverage on the field, and while he's currently riding solid form, rostering a golfer in this tier at high ownership at the 3M Open is not warranted for a golfer whose stats are not popping.
Mid-Priced Tier ($9,900 - $9,000)
Target: Kevin Streelman ($9,800) - After finishing 35th, with a 29.72% ownership, in Detroit, Streelman will likely continue his high ownership at the 3M Open as he is projected at just below 20% ownership as he has made the cut in seven straight tournaments, finishing inside the top-20 in four of those appearances. Over his last 50 tournaments, Streelman ranks inside the top-40 in all five key stats while ranking inside the top-10 in strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: tee to green. While Streelman continues to sit inside the top-40 in all five key stats over his last 24 rounds, he ranks first in strokes gained: approach and second in strokes gained: tee to green while coming in at 13th in par 4s gained: 450-500 yards. Yes, the ownership is concerning, but Streelman has been in great form and DFS players could use the sub-25% ownership to their advantage.
Target: Scott Piercy ($9,600) - Piercy, who finished 52nd at the U.S. Open, his last appearance, has made the cut in 16 of his last 18 tournaments, including finishing inside the top-10 four times over that span, and he may come in at sub-10% ownership. Over the last 50 rounds, Piercy ranks inside the top-40 in four of the five key stats, ranking inside the top-30 in three, and he checks in 65th in par 4s gained: 450-500 yards. Over his last 24 rounds, Piercy ranks inside the top-20 in par 4s gained: 450-500 yards and strokes gained: tee to green, and he is inside the top-45 in strokes gained: approach and birdies or better while dropping to 74th in opportunities gained. While Piercy's putting can always be an issue, he has gained strokes putting in four of the last six tournaments, though he's lost strokes in that category in two straight appearances.
Avoid: Charley Hoffman ($9,300) - Hoffman, who has missed three straight cuts, will likely come in as one of the top-owned golfers in this tier -- currently projected around 15% ownership. Over the last 50 rounds, Hoffman ranks outside of the top-20 in four of the five key stats. But he does come inside the top-60 in all five stats, and he ranks 12th in opportunities gained. While his standing greatly improves over the last 24 rounds, ranking inside the top-35 in all five key stats and inside the top-10 in strokes gained: approach and opportunities gained, Hoffman has finished inside the top-40 in just one of his last seven tournaments. While putting can vary from week to week, Hoffman has lost strokes putting in four straight tournaments, and his worst putting surface is bentgrass.
Low-Priced Tier ($8,900 and below)
Target: Cameron Tringale ($8,900): With two top-12 finishes and four straight made cuts since the Wells Fargo, including a fifth in last weekend's Rocket Mortgage Classic, Tringale is projected to come in at just above 11% ownership. Over the last 50 rounds, Tringale ranks inside the top-75 in all five key stats, sitting inside the top-30 in birdies or better and strokes gained: approach. Over the last 24 rounds, however, Tringale's ranks greatly improve as he falls inside the top-30 in all five key stats while ranking inside the top-10 in birdies or better and par 4s gained: 450-500 yards. At sub-12% ownership, Tringale, especially due to his recent form, is a great target in this range as he has finished inside the top-25 in three of his last six appearances.
Target: Josh Teater ($7,400): With four straight made cuts and a 17th at the Charles Schwab, Teater is projected at sub-5% percent ownership, which will allow DFS players to allocate a small amount of their budget while still gaining leverage on the field. Over the last 24 rounds, Teater ranks inside the top-70 in four of the five key stats, ranking inside the top-35 in birdies or better and strokes gained: approach, while sitting 113th in par 4s gained: 450-500 yards. Over the last 50 rounds, Teater is still outside of the top-100 in par 4s gained: 450-500 yards, and he ranks inside the top-60 in the four other key stats, cracking the top-35 in just strokes gained: approach.
Avoid: Talor Gooch ($8,900): Cracking the top-20 for the first time since the Honda Classic, Gooch finished 17th at last weekend's Rocket Mortgage Classic, gaining 8.9 strokes putting, and he has missed four of the last eight cuts. He is projected to lead this field in ownership, coming in at over 20% owned. While Gooch is inside the top-10 in birdies or better and strokes gained: approach over his last 50 rounds, he sits 70th or worse in strokes gained: tee to green and par 4s gained: 450-500 yards. Over his last 24 rounds, however, Gooch ranks outside the top-70 in three of the five key stats while ranking inside the top-15 in birdies or better and strokes gained: approach. Gooch's best putting surface is bentgrass, but in this tier, there is always reason to fade a player when the ownership hits these levels.
Ben Fisher is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ben Fisher also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Gvsubrickwall. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.