PGA Betting Guide for the 3M Open
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below we will cover the best bets for the 3M Open based on current form, course fit, and, of course, the value of their odds over at Golf odds. For more info on TPC Twin Cities and the key stats this week, check out the Course Primer.
Stats are from Fantasy National Golf Club and are for golfers in the field over the last 50 rounds, unless otherwise noted.
At the Top
Jason Day (+1100) - As shown last week, these borderline swing season-type events with weak fields and crazy scores make it just about impossible to roll with anyone with single digit odds. Over the course of four days and what could approach 1,800 birdies or better, backing short odds is really just betting that one of the top guys gets a top 1% ballstriking week and storms the field. That leaves Day as the shortest reasonable option, and at just +1100 even he's a stretch. The Australian has shown a propensity for dominating long courses, as he's first in total strokes gained and third in birdies or better gained on courses measuring over 7,400 yards. His only two wins in the last two years have come at the Wells Fargo Championship and the Farmers Insurance Open. Quail Hollow Club and Torrey Pines are two of the longest venues on Tour, and while they play much harder than TPC Twin Cities is expected to, Day is a prime candidate at the top of the market to dust the field this week.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1400) - DeChambeau comes in at double the price of favorite Brooks Koepka, a nice value given how often Bryson found himself at the top of the leaderboard over the last 18 months. Two of his five Tour wins came in weak fields at TPC courses with Bentgrass greens (the 2017 John Deere Classic and 2018 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open). The John Deere is played in Illinois and another of his triumphs, the Memorial Tournament, is played in Ohio, giving DeChambeau elite chops in the Midwest. He's taken steps in the right direction over his last few events, and the time is ripe for DeChambeau to return to the winner's circle.
Patrick Reed (+2000) - Reed's history shows he can group a few strong finishes together and cap off a good stretch with a place at or near the top of the leaderboard. He has been on fire tee to green over the last three events, gaining 7.6, 2.6, and 7.6 strokes. Those performances have helped him to a T32 at the U.S. Open, a T30 at the Travelers Championship, and a T5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic leading into this week. He is one of the best talents in the field but is priced just far enough from the favorites to offer some measure of value at +2000.
Value Spots
Kevin Na (+4200) and Ryan Moore (+4200) - Two golfers who are diametrical opposites from a statistical standpoint jump off the page at the exact same number. As far as stats go, Na is 68th in strokes gained: tee to green and 74th in strokes gained: approach, but he is 8th in strokes gained: putting and 16th in strokes gained: around the green. Moore is the inverse: 18th tee to green and 5th in approach, but 56th in putting and 63rd around the green. So why lump them together? Wins, baby. Moore has wins, like DeChambeau, at the John Deere (2017) and the Shriners (2012). Na, on the other hand, booked a win last season at the similarly birdie-friendly Greenbrier Classic. Moore also has a win at TPC Kuala Lumpur (2014 CIMB Classic), and the man who finished right on his heels was none other than Na. These two feast on easy, soft courses, and although they do it in different ways they are both very much live this week.
Danny Lee (+8000) - Lee came out firing last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, briefly holding the lead in the first round en route to a 66. He gained 5.0 strokes tee to green in just that one round, and he's shown an ability to flash that type of round every once in a while. If he ever manages to put together two or three of those in the same event, it's a wrap. He's also posted his best finishes at courses that correlate well with the rest of our card and the players detailed above - Lee's lone career win came at the Greenbrier in 2015, where he also finished T9 in 2017, and he has top 10 finishes at the John Deere, CIMB Classic, and Wells Fargo. He is also offered at +8000 for first round leader and if he only manages one of those elite rounds he could pay out early this week.
Matthew Wolff (+8000) - While Viktor Hovland is rightly getting doused with praise at his early results as a pro, the young man who summarily whooped Hovland at the NCAA Championship back in May has fallen by the wayside and is offered at almost triple the price of his former Oklahoma State teammate. Wolff won the NCAA title at 10-under par, 5 strokes clear of second place and 14 strokes ahead of Hovland. He's yet to prove it on the PGA Tour, but the talent is there and if conditions are friendly he can be dominant.
Long Shots
Doc Redman (+10000) - Don't be fooled into thinking last week's runner up finish was a fluke. In these weaker fields around the U.S. Open and the Open Championship, talented golfers can gain confidence and string together strong finishes seemingly out of nowhere. Last year, guys like Harold Varner, Joel Dahmen, and Bronson Burgoon found multiple top 10 finishes in this stretch. While the courses are different this year, we are still talking about good scoring conditions and weak fields. Winning outright is another matter entirely, and while the price isn't quite as sexy he is an acceptable +900 for a top 10 finish.
Max Homa (+15000) - The winner at Quail Hollow this year, Homa is offered at much too generous a price this week as a tournament champion aged just a few weeks. Homa is 14th in strokes gained: approach, and he's gained at least 3.2 strokes tee to green in 4 of his last 7 events. Unlike most offerings in this range, Homa has proven that if he plays his best tee to green game and sinks a few putts, he has what it takes to hoist a trophy on a Sunday evening.
