PGA Betting Guide for the Honda Classic
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Honda Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
With a top-heavy field at an event that often sees either big names or out-of-nowhere surprises at the top of the leaderboard, we have some interesting choices to make this week. Windy conditions, a transition to Bermuda greens, and a ton of water hazards make this event wildly unpredictable. We can embrace that variance by either staking the best overall players or digging deep for golfers who fit the bill.
For more info on PGA National, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Brooks Koepka (+1100) - Koepka has broken the heat with Tommy Fleetwood and Rickie Fowler (both +1200) to emerge as the alpha in this field, and with good reason. Koepka, well...actually wins on the PGA Tour. Yes, Fowler is a former winner here but he is simply not on Brooks' level when the big guy is locked in. Whether he will be fully engaged in a non-major remains to be seen, but he was runner up last year and, having ceded the No. 1 ranking to Rory McIlroy since his injury and unremarkable finishes, should be highly motivated to make a statement this week.
Justin Rose (+2000) - Rose is out of favor at the moment thanks to tinkering with his ball and clubs (heyo!), and with so many rising stars on Tour, it is easy to underrate Rose's still immense talents. It's been a while since he teed it up at PGA National, but he should have good vibes aside from a missed cut in 2015. He has finished inside the top five in three prior installments in 2013, 2012, and 2010. He is difficult to get too excited about, but at 20/1 you get a golfer with far more win equity than anyone in the field besides Koepka.
Billy Horschel (+2200) - On the wave of two top 10s and moving back to his home state of Florida and preferred Bermuda greens, Horschel should be a popular pick this week and comes in at a fair price. With just one PGA Tour win since claiming the FedEx Cup back in 2014, Horschel is certainly a question mark. He's finished T16, MC, T4, and T8 the last four years, and with the best lead-in form of his career, he should firmly be in contention this week. Even if we like him, we acknowledge the win equity questions and find favor in plus-money for a Top 20 Finish (+130).
Sungjae Im (+2900) - We will keep riding him until he gets there! After a week off and two courses that really don't fit Im's game, we find ourselves at a perfect opportunity for the breakthrough we've been waiting for. He was T51 in his debut here last year, but he's been his best on Southeast courses with Bermuda greens in his short career. He was runner up in Mississippi in the fall, and last season his two best finishes were a T3 at Bay Hill and T4 at Innisbrook. Im is ready to breakthrough, and he showed in the Presidents Cup he is not afraid going toe to toe with the biggest names in the sport. After this week, he might be one of them.
Ryan Palmer (+5500) - Palmer was in the hunt last year and is really two bad bunkers away from a terrific start to the season. An errant long approach on the 72nd hole at the Sony Open ruined his chances for a potential playoff, and he made a disastrous 9 on the par 3 14th at Riviera that took five shots to get out of the greenside bunker that basically killed his tournament on Saturday. He was T21 at the Farmers Insurance Open despite a Sunday 77. All of which is to say, Palmer is closer than it might seem at first glance. We know he can handle himself in the wind, and he finished tied for fourth here last year.
Jason Dufner (+26000) - Dufner has never missed the cut at PGA National in 10 tries, finishing inside the top 20 in half of them. This former major winner is offered up at a price far longer than rookies and journeymen with either no history or no success at this grueling course. He popped for a T4 at another challenging Bermuda track in Quail Hollow last year, and though the player card doesn't look pretty Dufner is much better suited to a low-scoring affair than many of the birdie-fests throughout the season. He is obviously very thin to win outright, but at these odds, he offers tremendous value as a Top 20 Finish (+850), Top 30 Finish (+600), or Top 40 Finish (+420), depending on your appetite for risk.