PGA Betting Guide for the WGC-Workday Championship
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the WGC-Workday Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The golf world took a shock on Tuesday with news that Tiger Woods was injured in a car accident, and thankfully it appears Woods will be all right despite significant injuries to both legs. The field at this week's event will be playing with a lot on their mind, as the icon most of today's top golfers grew up admiring looms large for a different reason. Thoughts and prayers for Tiger and his family first and foremost this week.
We have a new course to contend with as the year's first WGC event skips Mexico and heads straight to Bradenton, Florida. WGC events almost always produce an elite winner, so we'll focus our picks on world-class golfers in each tier.
For more info on The Concession Golf Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Rory McIlroy (+1400) - We'll forego the top two players in the world offered this week at single digits -- Dustin Johnson (+600) and Jon Rahm (+850) -- and start our card with McIlroy. We don't quite know how The Concession will play for PGA professionals. It's a difficult course by slope and rating, but the regular joes no doubt struggle mightily with the long par 5s that are cannon fodder for the world's elite. If the conditions really do look tough then Rahm is probably the better play, and you really can't go wrong with Johnson in a vacuum even if he's basically un-bettable again at half the price of the likes of McIlroy. Rory can be a front-runner here in a short field.
Justin Thomas (+1800) - Thomas was an absolute mess last week at the Genesis Invitational, but he fits so well at what this course requires and will benefit from a return to bermuda greens after a disastrous week at Riviera. He lost 5.8 strokes putting in just two rounds, one of the worse weeks of his career. It was the eighth time in the last four years he's lost four or more strokes putting, and he's bounced back each time with finishes of 39th, 1st, 2nd, 11th, 3rd, 2nd, and 25th in the next PGA event immediately following those performances, according to stats from Fantasy National Golf Club. Thomas has just one win in the past 12 months and is bound to break through again soon, and we can get him here at one of the longest odds we're likely to see him all year.
Value Spots
Brooks Koepka (+2700) - Vegas apparently doesn't buy in on Koepka reclaiming his spot among the world's elite after his win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. In the look-ahead odds for the season's four remaining majors, Koepka is 10/1 at the U.S. Open and 12/1 at the Masters, PGA Championship, and the Open Championship. We took advantage of Koepka at the WMPO at close to 50/1, and if he's truly back and confident, this number is way too long. He finished T38 at the Genesis Invitational thanks in large part to an awful showing in the bad weather on Saturday, shooting 77 and losing almost four strokes to the field. Koepka did not play Mexico last year while recovering from injury, so his last two WGC events were his runner-up and win the past two seasons at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.
Cameron Smith (+4500) - Smith finished in fourth place at the Genesis Invitational, and we know he can get streaky and pile up strong finishes a few events in a row. This could be the time to buy in on Smith, who will be better suited if the course does indeed put up a major fight this week or if the wind makes things really difficult. He was solid all week at Riviera, firing rounds of 69, 68, 71, and 67. Concession's greens are littered with bunker protection, and Smith is one of the top scramblers in the field especially out of the sand.
Long Shots
Adam Scott (+5000) - Like Koepka, Scott was done in by a Saturday 76 at the Genesis. He couldn't build on what was surprisingly just his first top 20 since his win at Riviera last year, though admittedly, he played a very light schedule in 2020. At his best, he is capable of leading even the strongest fields with his ballstriking, but he's really struggled with his iron play of late. He lost 3.5 strokes with his approaches last week, making it fully half of his measured events since that win that he's lost with his irons. That is bound to change for someone with Scott's long-term form, and playing two weeks in a row can build up his rhythm and get him back into contention.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+5000) - Fitzpatrick couldn't quite make the charge on Sunday but still managed to hang on for a T5 finish. Had he sunk a five-footer on the 72nd hole that would have been a solo fifth, but he was too strong on his birdie attempt and finished with nine straight pars despite having six birdie putts from 20 feet or closer. He's held his own in WGC events, with finishes of 6th, 37th, 7th, 4th, and 27th over the past two years. As one of the top international players without a PGA Tour win, Fitzpatrick is still just 26 years old and has his best golf ahead of him. When he does win, it will be against elite competition at a tough course.
