PGA Betting Guide for the RBC Heritage
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the RBC Heritage based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
A strong field descends upon Hilton Head, South Carolina this week in what has historically been a Masters hangover week with just a few top names. Instead, we see the world No. 1 Dustin Johnson teeing it up for the RBC Heritage for the fourth straight year, headlining a field that features half the world's top 30 players. We've seen some truly off-the-wall winners here, but with more premiere talent in the field than normal, the outlier results may be a thing of the past.
In contrast not just to last week but to most weeks on the PGA Tour, Harbour Town Golf Links challenges golfers to do more than bomb it off the tee. These are the smallest greens on Tour, and getting up and down when you inevitably miss will make all the difference this week. So while we typically look to ballstriking -- and approach play is definitely still important here -- we'll target golfers who beat the field when things don't go right. That means looking at scrambling, bogey avoidance, and stroke gained: around the green.
For more info on Harbour Town Golf Links along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Webb Simpson (+1300) - The defending champion gets first honors over the undoubtedly more talented Johnson. A decent course record lacks the upside we want, and ultimately we'll be happy to back DJ almost anywhere when he's in form. He's simply not though, with a dud in Match Play bracketed by a missed cut at the Masters and finishes of T48 and T54. Simpson fits the mold here, not just winning last year but historically doing well in the Southeast, on bermuda courses, and on Pete Dye-designed tracks. On the entire PGA Tour this season, he ranks first in scrambling, second in bogey avoidance, and eighth in strokes gained: around the green.
Shane Lowry (+3500) - Coming off his best career finish at Augusta National a few weeks out from his best career finish at TPC Sawgrass, Lowry is in his best form since winning The Open. This is an ideal track for him, where the firepower is mitigated and golfers must rely on strategy and creativity. He's 30th on the Tour in strokes gained: around the green, and he should be able to handle Harbour Town's other best defense, gusts off the Atlantic Coast. You don't win the Claret Jug without being able to handle the wind, and Lowry is better suited than most this week.
Si Woo Kim (+3600) - Si Woo was runner up here in 2018 and has a great record on Pete Dye tracks, and while this number might not be exactly what we like to see next to his name there is still some merit in Kim this week. He is 10th in both bogey avoidance and scrambling, and 22nd in strokes gained: around the green. He could well have collapsed after breaking his putter at Augusta, but instead, he held on for a T12 and his best Masters finish. He could not make his charge over the weekend, but he carries great form and a ton of confidence into Harbour Town that had left him in the events immediately following his win at the American Express. That blip aside, he's been in terrific form for the better part of the last year and looks like a good bet for a Top 10 Finish (+500).
Harris English (+4300) - Like Kim, English sputtered after getting his long due victory. English triumphed at the Tournament of Champions and played fine at the Sony Open for a T32, but left his form in Hawaii and posted MC, MC, and T66 at the Farmers Insurance Open, Waste Management Phoenix Open, and WGC - Workday Championship, respectively. Since then he's posted a T26 at Bay Hill and T21 at Augusta and looks to have put his issues behind him. On Tour this season he's 8th in scrambling and 15th in bogey avoidance.
Russell Henley (+6000) - These shorter, less driver-heavy courses should suit golfers like Henley, who for a while was leading the Tour in both strokes gained: approach and bogey avoidance. He still leads in the latter and is sixth in the former, and also ranks fifth in scrambling. Once upon a time, he was a reliable putter, and after a couple of lackluster years, he has put together a solid stretch of six straight events in the positive, most recently gaining a massive 8.2 strokes putting to finish third at the Honda Classic. At these odds, we'll gladly take elite iron play and an uncanny ability to recover when he misses.
Mackenzie Hughes (+13000) - Hughes has shown he is worthy of our respect over the past year, reaching the TOUR Championship. He is well suited to a lower-scoring affair, as shown with top 10s at both the Memorial Tournament and the BMW Championship last season. After last year's birdie-fest, we can expect this event to look more like its old self, where no golfer has cracked 15-under for the week since 2015. Harbour Town should play to his short-game strengths, and the long win odds mean we get decent numbers on Top 20 Finish (+410).