Lone Star Park Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 6/30/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 2:35 p.m. EST today, we have nine races at Lone Star Park. Using our projections as a guide, here's a look at some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will be referencing Equibase's speed figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Matrooh and Thrasher, Race 1 (2:35 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 7/5 and 10/1
Matrooh (7/5) is the favorite for a reason as he's posted a speed figure of at least 103 in a race in each of the past three years, including a 106 back in February, according to Equibase. He'll be ridden by Ramon A. Vazquez, owner of a sparkling 23% win rate at Lone Star this season. The only issue here is there isn't much money to be made with Matrooh, something you can fix by pairing him with Thrasher in an exacta.
Thrasher is actually our pick to win the opener, but going by speed figures, he's got some ground to make up on Matrooh. Thrasher has a career-best speed figure of 95, which he hit two races ago, and he's put up at least a 92 speed figure in three of his past four races. Beating Matrooh may be a bridge too far for Thrasher, but he looks to be a bit underpriced and is an appealing pick to place at these odds.
Whipum Naenae, Race 4 (4:11 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 3/1
Whipum Naenae (3/1) is our pick to win Race 4. She's been in the top three in three of her past five outings, per Timeform, and should be in contention in a field that looks to be lacking much strong competition. Whipum Naenae has recorded a speed figure between 64 and 69 in each of her last five races, and favorite Brightest has never been above 64 across four career events.
Carpe Eros, Race 9 (6:45 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 3/1
Our model has the favorite taking each of the last five races, including the finale, which we see going to Carpe Eros (3/1). The colt is coming off a career-best 80 speed figure in a second-place finish back on June 10th, and he'll be ridden by David Cabrera, who has won 17% of his races in 2020, in addition to a 52% top-three rate. Governale (7/2) may be the stiffest competition. He had a 94 speed figure two races ago, but his other two events have resulted in speed figures of 71 and 67.
