Louisiana Downs Horse Racing Picks for Monday 9/21/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 4:05 p.m. EST, we have eight races at Louisiana Downs. Using numberFire’s projections and Daily Horse Picks as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
AJ’s Grand , Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1
Rain is in the forecast the final three days of the Thoroughbred Meet, starting today at Louisiana Downs. Check the turf races, especially, as those may be moved to the dirt track, and horses entered may not race. There are at least 11 entries in all races today, including this small Claiming race for fillies and mares at 1 mile and 70 yards. Watch and wager on all the races at TVG.
The top pick, according to both Daily Horse Picks and Guaranteed Tip Sheet, is A J’s Grand (5/1), a seven-year-old trained by Steve Asmussen who ran his best race in two years when winning here in July. He finished second at the same 7 furlong distance the next race, and a stalking trip and added distance is fine with the track's dominant and leading-jockey Joel Dominguez in the saddle. Dominguez has 67 wins and a 22% win rate, with the next-closest jockey at 39 wins.
The favorite, Weneedtotalk (5/2), is 0-for-9 this year but did finish runner-up five weeks ago as the favorite with slower speed figures racing 1-mile. Celtic Lass (8/1) won here at this level and distance in early August as a double-digit longshot but finished eighth against better runners less than three weeks ago.
Boston Bind and Dixie Street, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1 and 10/1
Race 6 is an Allowance race for state-breds sprinting 6 furlongs. Daily Horse Picks projects two longshots to hit the board with Broadway Jones (10/1) to win, followed by Boston Bind (4/1) and Bayou Bode (12/1).
The mild favorite is Alterana (7/2), who is a three-year-old with 10 starts this year. He won both of his recent races, including by a nose last out against claimers, posting his best-ever speed figure (83). Alterana moves into Allowance company now, and the preferred pick is Boston Bind, ridden by another leading-rider Carlos Lozada. Boston Bind has won three straight races at Evangeline Downs but did race at Louisiana Downs twice this summer without success. A return to last year’s speed figures over this track has him hitting the board and a capable contender.
Broadway Jones is a fit three-year-old who won here just nine days ago from well off the pace with Joel Dominguez riding and now moves up to Allowance company. However, Dominguez is riding Dixie Street (10/1), who is 0-for-4 this year but finished second against better Allowance runners in July.
Starzip and End Zone, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 8/1
Race 8 is a 6 furlong Claiming race, and End Zone (8/1) will be looking to score breaking from the rail. He raced poorly just 12 days ago, stepping up in class to Allowance company, but he returns to a claiming level where he won by 9-lengths as the heavy favorite in early August.
The slight favorite is Populist (4/1), but a best bet from Guaranteed Tip Sheet is Starzip (9/2) with Joel Dominguez riding for trainer Steve Asmussen. Starzip is a nice three-year-old who is sired by City Zip. He won two races back to break his maiden with a solid 87 speed figure as the heavy favorite at this sprint distance. He was a non-factor in the same Allowance race as the aforementioned End Zone 12 days ago.
Populist is 0-for-7 this year with just one in-the-money finish but has been racing against stronger runners, and his speed figures fit fine.
Crow Mountain (5/1) is 1-for-6 this year and won his Louisiana Downs debut last month. However, that race was on turf, and his speed figures don’t matchup to some of the other runners in this race.