Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 11/12/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:00 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Churchill Downs. Here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Illiogami and Sovereign Power, Race 6
TVG Racing Odds: 3/1 and 4/1
Race 6 is a Maiden Special Weight for 2-year-old fillies going 1-mile on the turf. Stunning Princess (7/5) will take money as the favorite. She’s finished second in 2-of-3 starts, and Horse Racing Radar notes she tried a Grade 1 race last out in September and was never a factor against stronger runners.
Guaranteed Tip Sheet projects Stunning Princess to win in front of Illiogami (3/1), who finished a close fifth in her lone start five weeks ago at this distance as the favorite.
The EPO trainers are plentiful in this race, which must be looked at when evaluating route races. Chad Brown has Targeted Return (7/2) running for a second time off a poor debut two months ago at similar odds. Mike Maker saddles Sovereign Power (4/1), who finished fourth in her two starts. Saffie Joseph, Jr. runs Lady Clementine (10/1) in her debut.
Chance to Shine and Resurrection Road, Race 7
TVG Racing Odds: 4/1 and 3/1
Race 7 is an Allowance Optional Claiming race for fillies and mares at 1 mile. Beautiful Tramua (5/2) is a false favorite, and she finished a distant fourth last race behind third-place finisher Resurrection Road (3/1). Those two couldn’t hold up in a pace duel, but Resurrection Road did the previous race and can move to the front and stay there this time, according to Horse Racing Radar projections.
Chance to Shine (4/1) has been running at smaller midwest tracks but posting a number of 90's speed figures. She’s finished in-the-money in three straight races with a win.
Telephone Talker and Toma Toda, Race 9
TVG Racing Odds: 9/2 and 10/1
Race 9 is an Allowance race at 1 1/16 miles on the turf and is the most wide open race on the card. A total of 10 runners will likely go with others also eligible or ready if moved off the turf. Chad Brown-trained Perjury Trap (4/1) is a closer coming off a 3 1/2 month layoff but is preferred over Churn N Burn (4/1) as those two vie for favoritism.
Mud Pie (7/2) is the top pick according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet’s algorithm, and Horse Racing Radar notes he strings three races together and has posted 90’s speed figures in three straight races. He’ll be coming from the back of the pack.
Telephone Talker (9/2) has a solid shot in this race for EPO trainer Mike Maker. He was competitive in all his maiden starts and broke through a month ago. He beat a horse who nearly won last weekend’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and can win here. Telephone Talker should be included in all Exacta and Trifecta wagers.
Toma Toda (10/1) has been off for eight months but has some attractive past turf form if you dig deeper. He's a potential bigger payoff underneath in exotic wagers. Trainer Steve Asmussen has him working well in the mornings and any improvement in his progression makes him capable of paying off at a price.