​Tampa Bay Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 2/6/21

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 11:50 p.m. EST, we have 12 races at Tampa Bay Downs. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Greyes Creek and Armistice, Race 8

FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1 and 10/1

Super Bowl weekend in Tampa includes the Big Game plus a big day of stakes races at Tampa Bay Downs. Race 8 is a the $175K Grade III Tampa Bay Stakes for 12 older horses, and it is going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. It’s the start of the Pick 5 and probably the best wagering opportunity for a higher return among the late races. Thus, we’ll pass on favorite Fancy Liquor (3/1) for EPO trainer Mike Maker, a horse who will probably go to the front in a pressured pace. Maker also entered By Your Side (12/1), who has the second-best late pace numbers, according to Horse Racing Radar. Sole Volante (15/1) is overlooked based on recent races but offers value.

Greyes Creek (4/1) has a good chance for EPO trainer Chad Brown with Johnny V riding. He’ll have to break well from the far outside to sit a stalking trip. This is just his second start since July, but he has been winning against progressively better runners -- as noted by Super Screener -- and has a strong turn of foot and the best late pace speed in the field, per Horse Racing Radar. The top pick by numberFire’s data is Admission Office (6/1) with longshots Talk or Listen (15/1) and Armistice (10/1) projected to hit the board. Armistice ships in from Woodbine off a layoff. Proven Strategies (15/1) is another speed horse who can stick based on results in races with faster fractions and is one to add for a bigger score in the trifecta and superfecta.

Irony of Reality and Logic N Reason, Race 10

FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/1 and 7/2

Race 10 is the $175K Grade III Lambholm South Endeavour for older fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The three horses to hit the board according to numberFire’s algorithm will be Eres Tu (6/1) to win, followed by Irony of Reality (8/1) and New York Girl (4/1). Counterparty Risk (5/2) is the favorite for EPO trainer Chad Brown. Counterparty Risk is a reliable board hitter who came up just short last race.

New York Girl is an Ireland-based filly who ran against Europe’s best last summer but had little success. She won her first U.S. race for trainer Bill Mott. Logic N Reason (7/2) won her first trip over the Tampa surface with good fractions and can repeat for top trainer Christophe Clement.

Irony of Reality ran the top last-race speed figure at Gulfstream, according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet, and won the last time she came from that track to Tampa. She raced just two weeks ago and this will be her third start in five weeks. She has won 4-of-6 on the turf.

Known Agenda and Candy Man Rocket, Race 11

FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 10/1

Race 11 is the $250K Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles for three-year-olds. The top-four finishers earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points (10-4-2-1). The top choices according to numberFire’s projections are Smiley Sobotka (3/1) and Nova Rags (4/1), the latter of whom won his last race going away in his first start at Tampa for trainer Bill Mott. Smiley Sototka has improved in each of his first three races, notching a win and two close runner-up finishes.

A top win contender and value play is Known Agenda (6/1), who finished third last race in the mud and ran wide but has come back with some fast morning works and can continue improvement for trainer Todd Pletcher. He also has a win and runner-up finish, and go-to jockey Johnny Velazquez will likely ride with a tracking trip, reserving energy for a late run.

Candy Man Rocket (10/1) is Mott’s other entry. He won in his second career start with balanced speed figures as provided by Super Screener. That included stronger late speed figures, which is a good indicator as he stretches out for his first route race. Candy Man Rocket is a pace presser with value.