Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday 4/9/21
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:05 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections and Daily Horse Picks as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Snow’s Island and Absam, Race 3
FanDuel Racing Odds: 20/1 and 3/1
Race 3 is a Maiden Special Weight going a 1 1/8 mile route on the Turf. The top pick, according to numberFire’s algorithm, is Sliabh Aughty (6/1) followed by the favorite, Absam (3/1). Note that EPO trainer Mike Maker has both Absam and Nineeleventurbo (7/2) in the race, and the EPO additive helps runners find another gear and is most effective on longer distance races. None of these runners have won a race as maidens, and leading jockey Joel Rosario rides Absam, as he’s strong and a great stretch rider. However, Rosario is 0-for-10 at the meet when riding maidens.
Sliabh Aughty is winless in eight starts with his last two on U.S. soil. He flashed his best speed rating (87) when finishing fourth at the Fair Grounds heavier track last month and ran on the lead for more than three-quarters of a mile before fading.
Top Race Reports likes Absam and a longshot offering value in Snow’s Island (20/1). Understanding trainer's work patterns is part of the process in uncovering winners, and especially less known trainers like Thomas Bush, who will often place their runners effectively. Look for a good break from the gate with Tyler Gaffalione riding as a good fit.
Tobys Heart and Inajiffy, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 15/1
Race 7 is the $100K TVG Limestone Turf Sprint. This is a wide open stakes race with 13 three-year-old fillies sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the Turf. The projected winner, according to numberFire’s data, is the favorite Campanelle (8/5) with New Boss (6/1) and Tobys Heart (6/1) projected to finish in-the-money.
Guaranteed Tip Sheet likes Campanelle, and Horse Racing Radar notes she’s dropping in class off a Group 1 event overseas, and she’s a super-strong fit having won 3-of-4 career stars including 2-for-2 at the distance. Goin’ Good (8/1) is 2-for-2 on the grass for EPO trainer Brad Cox, while New Boss won her last two easily and can improve further in her second start after a layoff.
Tobys Heart strings together races for the first time, indicating good health. Top Race Reports (TRR) also notes she exits a route race, which should help her stamina factor down the lane. A longshot is worth noting in this open sprint, and TRR and handicapping notes at ECHR show Inajiffy (15/1) ran strong in her debut and rallied from off the pace to win. She was offered at much lower odds while improving her speed figure to 87 over a deeper Fair Grounds track. There's good risk/reward here and that’s a preferred option when looking for live runners in larger fields to cash in a bigger price.
Hit the Road and Field Pass, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1 and 8/1
Race 9 is the $400K Grade I Makers Mark Mile for older horses on the Turf. The numberFire projections like the favorites Raging Bull (7/2) to prevail over Ride a Comet (6/1) and Hit the Road (4/1). The race is filled with EPO trainers, including Chad Brown for Raging Bull with top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding. Include in exacta and trifecta wagering.
Horse Racing Radar notes that Hit the Road has won four in a row and 6-of-8 on turf. Top Race Reports adds that he’s run his best speed figures in his last two races, and ships in from the West coast for trainer Dan Blacker off a sizzling final quarter time of 22.4 last race. Field Pass (8/1) has been off since December for trainer EPO Mike Maker, and the son of Lemon Drop Kid has very strong triple-digit speed figures. He has four straight stakes races with a win and three in-the-money finishes, and TRR sees value with top stretch-rider Joel Rosario bringing her home with a strong run.
