Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday 4/16/21
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:05 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Master Piece, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/1
Race 6 is an open Allowance race for older horses going a 1 1/8 mile route on the Turf. Both Factor This (3/1) and Hay Dakota (8/1) have been scratched, opening the door for Master Piece (2/1) to take this from the rail over four challengers. Strong stretch-jockey Joel Rosario rides for EPO trainer Chad Brown, where the added distance works.
Master Piece was placed in a Grade I event last fall for his U.S. debut off a layoff and finished fourth with a 110 speed figure. He is best in this adjusted field, and numberFire agrees, projecting him to win the race.
Southern Mama and Dawn's Dancer, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1 and 15/1
Race 8 is an Allowance race for older fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the Turf. There are 12 runners following the scratch of longshot My Sweet Kat, and this is not the best group, so look down the board and project better running and value. The top pick, according to numberFire’s data, is Senora Roma (8/1) in front of Jades Gelly (4/1).
Senora Roma has been off for one year and has just three career starts, though she did win her last with a 100 speed figure. Jades Gelly makes her 2021 debut following a sixth-place finish last fall against similar conditions. Lexintonia (5/1) has the sharpest workouts of all runners and makes her fourth start on the fourth different track. Leading jockey Luis Saez rides her for the first time with top trainer Christophe Clement getting her to the winner's circle on first asking last summer at Saratoga. Zero to Sixty (10/1) also won on debut last summer at Saratoga, and the daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah makes her 2021 debut having missed the money in three starts since and returns to turf.
Southern Mama (5/1) adds Lasix, blinkers, and moves to the turf with top rider Joel Rosario taking over. Top Race Reports expects a better run from her, and longshot Dawn’s Dancer (15/1), who is back on schedule, spotted well and is overlooked in here with a chance after a runner-up finish in her 2021 debut last race.
Royal Flag and Speech, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 8/5
Race 9 is the $100K Grade III Baird Doubledogdare Stakes for older fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles. numberFire's algorithm projects the favorite, Speech (8/5), to win, with Royal Flag (5/2) and Bonny South (3/1) to finish in-the-money.
FanDuel Racing odds suggest a 33% implied win probability for the favorite Speech, who has two wins and two runner-up finishes in four tries at the distance, according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet. She won a Grade I race impressively over this course and distance last summer, and Horse Racing Radar notes her only finish outside the top-three in nine starts was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She looks ready in her 2021 debut working well at Santa Anita for EPO trainer Mike McCarthy.
Royal Flag has also been off since November when she won a Grade III race. She has won four of eight starts and finished in-the-money in all eight, making her an inclusion in exacta and trifecta wager and a top pick for strong stretch-jockey riding for EPO trainer Chad Brown. She’s versatile and has run well on numerous tracks and will track the pace-setters.
Bonny South has three wins and three runner-up finishes in eight starts against, but her only graded stakes start she missed the money was over this track last summer. EPO trainer Brad Cox picks this race for her 2021 debut.