Belmont Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 6/12/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Realm of Law and Deferred Taxes, Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 3/1
Race 4 is a Maiden Special Weight at 1 mile on the turf. EPO trainer Chad Brown has two of the favorites in Deferred Taxes (3/1) and Realm of Law (7/2). The other main challenger is Mubtadaa (7/2) for EPO trainer Todd Pletcher. He’s a son of War Front and did not race as a two-year-old and hit the board in his second start in April with a pace-pressing run at a slightly longer distance.
The numberFire data projects Realm of Law to win, as does Guaranteed Tip Sheet. Realm of Law is also a son of War Front, and he finished second in April -- well in front of the rest in his second career start. That race was also a mile but on the dirt, and Horse Racing Radar notes that the 89 speed figure by Realm of Law was the best last-race figure in this field. He can move forward on the turf with leading jockey Jose Ortiz riding.
Deferred Taxes finished second in his two starts, once in April as a very heavy favorite. His odds will likely close lower than his morning line. Trainer Chad Brown has him working well at Saratoga but is not waiting until that meet to race Deferred Taxes. His entry here against this group is a positive sign, according to ECHR and Top Racing Reports.
Good Credence and Sadie Lady, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 2/1
Race 8 is the $100K Dancin Renee Stakes for older state-bred fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs. Sadie Lady (2/1) brings sharp speed into the race. The five-year-old mare is dropping in class and is the runner-up pick to projected winner Good Credence (5/2), according to the numberFire.
Leading jockey Jose Ortiz rides Sadie Lady for EPO trainer Rob Atras. Sadie Lady finished second last month in a Grade 3 race at Belmont, and Horse Racing Radar notes she’s won five of her seven races at this 6-furlong distance.
A speed duel between Sadie Lady and Ruvies In Time (4/1) could ensue, which would set up well for Good Credence or Fierce Lady (6/1), both of whom hit the board in their last starts off longer layoffs.
Fierce Lady won her race with one of her best races ever in her four-year-old debut, and she’s ridden by Belmont Stakes-winning jockey Luis Saez.
Good Credence has hit the board in 6-of-7 starts at Belmont and gets the slight nod to win over the two "Lady" runners for Guaranteed Tip Sheet. Good Credence is by solid sire Jimmy Creed, and trainer Tony Margotta, Jr. is returning him quickly off his pace-pressing runner-up finish and 91 speed figure two weeks ago in a 1-mile race. Now Good Credence cuts back to a sprint and should cash in at FanDuel Racing.
Ghoul and Second of July, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 6/1
Race 9 is a 6-furlong Allowance Sprint on the inner turf. Favorite Montauk Traffic (7/5) will only run if the race is taken off the turf and moved to the main track. Same with Yodel E.A. Who (5/2), who is a dirt-only runner, and those two are the top challengers if they race, per numberFire.
Second of July (6/1) can challenge in her 2021 debut. She’s working well at Saratoga with a pair of bullet workouts and won a Grade 3 race here last October. She’s 2-for-3 and missed the board in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in November.
Ghoul (6/1) is brought back quickly after finishing off the board as favorite last race. He’s posted many triple-digit speed figures in the past, and Top Race Reports suggests Ghoul will finish more effectively this race for EPO trainer Peter Miller with strong stretch rider Joel Rosario aboard.
Battle Station (7/2) is off a win last month and can challenge to win again.