Belmont Horse Racing Picks for Friday 6/18/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Stefanie On Fleek and Unicorn Sally, Race 3
FanDuel Racing Odds: 10/1 and 12/1
Race 3 is a Claiming race for fillies and mares, and it's going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. numberFire projects favorite Wicked Mercury (5/2) to win ahead of Saburai (5/1). Wicked Mercury appears tough at this level with a pair of runner-up finishes and improved speed ratings up to 89 last race in April. Her last four races were at Gulfstream, including a win in December at this claiming level. Leading jockey Jose Ortiz rides with an expected pace-pressing and stalking trip.
But looking for value and a bigger score, Top Race Reports and the ECHR suggest longer odds with Stefanie On Fleek (10/1) and Unicorn Sally (12/1). Stefanie on Fleek has a pair of in-the-money finishes her last two starts, including one week ago off a four-month layoff. She kept on strong to the finish, galloping out in a sprint, and now gets more ground with strong stretch jockey Joel Rosario bringing her home again at longer odds for EPO trainer Rude Rodriguez.
Unicorn Sally is a closer who raced just two weeks ago off a layoff. She was given that race and should move better today -- having also won here last fall to break her maiden and then improving her speed ratings in subsequent races.
Shesawildjoker and November Rein, Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 5/2
Race 4 is a Maiden Special Weight for state bred two-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs. The favorite is Kant Hurry Love (9/5), who makes her debut and will try to beat other baby juveniles. But November Rein (5/2) breaks from the outside No. 8 post and is the top pick, according to numberFire's algorithm. She makes her debut, and her sire is multiple Grade 1 winner Street Boss.
Top Race Reports points to debut runner Shesawildjoker (9/2) for more value, and Jose Ortiz is electing to ride with a pair of strong morning works in place, including a bullet.
Saratoga Kisses finished a distant second a month ago, and Top Race Reports suggests an improved race.
Danzigwiththestars and Ruse, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/1 and 8/1
Race 6 is a Maiden Special Weight for state breds going 1 mile on the turf. We've got a full field of runners, and based on his last race speed figure (84) and runner-up finish a month ago, Bar Fourteen (3/1 is the favorite and pick of numberFire to win. Top jockey Luis Saez rides, and Bar Fourteen was listed at longer odds previously before an improved race last out.
Danzigwiththestars (8/1) and bigger longshot Athenry (15/1) are better options for payoff, according to ECHR. Danzigwiththestars can improve in his second race off a layoff, and Athenry makes his second start after a wide trip and fifth-place finish last race.
Also, Ruse (8/1) showed promise racing on the turf as a two-year-old and has been working steadily at Belmont off her last race five months ago.